Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, December 4, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 since Monday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 36% (Trafalgar-R) to 46% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (up 1 from Monday), putting him at 11 points net negative.
NEVADA: SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide
Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +3 (44-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This race is expected to be a major battle and this poll, taken by a GOP-oriented firm, shows Republican challenger Laxalt narrowly leading Democratic incumbent Cortez Masto…. Cortez Masto was elected to the Senate in 2016 and is a former state AG…. Laxalt lost a 2018 gubernatorial bid and is also a former state AG; he’s the grandson of former Sen. Paul Laxalt (R), a Reagan buddy…. A September poll by a Democratic firm for The Nevada Independent had Cortez Masto ahead 46-41…. Handicappers rate the race tossup or battleground.
ALABAMA: SENATE 2022
Among Republican primary voters statewide
Katie Britt: 24%
Mo Brooks: 22%
Mike Durant: 9%
Katie Britt: 35%
Mo Brooks: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll was conducted for a PAC that’s supporting Britt, who runs first in it…. Brooks, who is supported by Donald Trump, was elected to the U.S. House in 2010 and lost the special GOP Senate primary in 2017…. Britt is former CEO of the Alabama Business Council and a former Chief of Staff to Sen. Richard Shelby (R); Shelby endorsed Britt…. Durant is an author and former army pilot…. The seat is now held by Shelby, who is retiring. The Republican nominee will be favored to win the general election.
Among voters nationwide
When do you think abortion should be legal?
- Abortion should always be legal. There should be no restrictions on abortion: 32%
- Abortion should be legal, but with some restrictions (such as for minors or third-trimester abortions): 28%
- Abortion should only be legal in special circumstances, such as when the life of the woman is in danger: 29%
- Abortion should be illegal. It should never be allowed: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: It’s worth noting that the hard pro-abortion rights position attracts nearly three times the support as the hard anti-abortion rights position (32-11). On the other hand, one can read these numbers to say that some type of abortion restrictions are supported by 68% of the electorate…. 23% of Republicans, 3% of Democrats, 10% of independents and 12% of women say abortions should never be legal… 54% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans, 30% of independents and 34% of women say abortions should always be legal.
Among voters nationwide
Looking at the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., do you believe that...
- The pandemic is going to get worse: 30%
- We are currently in the worst part of the pandemic: 10%
- The worst part of the pandemic is behind us: 35%
- Not sure: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: The percentage of voters saying the pandemic is going to get worse went up 13 points in this poll over the past month, while the percentage saying the worst part is behind us went down 11 points…. Latest results by party: 23% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats say the pandemic is going to get worse.
YOUNG AMERICANS ON NATION'S GREATNESS, DEMOCRACY
Among 18-29-year-olds nationwide in the U.S.
American greatness: Which statement comes closest to your own view?
- America is the greatest country in the world: 31%
- There are other nations as great or greater than America: 50%
- Don’t know: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: Only 21% of 18-29-year-old Democrats say America is the greatest country in the world, while 62% of 18-29-year-old Republicans do.
American democracy: Which of the following phrases best describes the United States today?
- A healthy democracy: 7%
- A somewhat functioning democracy: 27%
- A democracy in trouble: 39%
- A failed democracy: 13%
- Don’t know: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: 52% of 18-29-year-olds in the U.S. believe the nation’s democracy is either failed or in trouble…. This poll also finds that 35% of 18-29-year-olds believe the chance is above 50% that there will be a second Civil War in America during their lifetime.
Feelings of depression and anxiety among 18-29-year-olds––excerpts from poll report:
- "More than half (51%) of young Americans report having felt down, depressed, and hopeless -- and 25% have had thoughts of self-harm -- at least several times in the last two weeks."
- "In addition to the majority of youth who express depressive symptoms, and the 25% who express thoughts of self-harm, we also found that a significant number of young Americans are bothered by traits associated with generalized anxiety disorder:
- 38% of young Americans report feeling nervous, anxious, or on edge in the last two weeks
- 36% have been worrying too much about different things
- 32% have been easily annoyed or irritable
- 30% have had trouble relaxing
- 22% report feeling afraid as if something awful might happen
- 20% have not been able to stop or control worrying
- 16% have been so restless that it is hard to sit still
- "School or work (34%), personal relationships (29%), self-image (27%), economic concerns (25%), and the coronavirus (24%) are the five most popular responses given when asked about the impact on mental health. Politics and social media each were cited by 17% of survey respondents. Young females (22% compared to 13% for males) were significantly more likely to cite social media as a problem; young people living in the suburbs (22%) were more likely than others to say the same."
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: Trafalgar Group (R), Nov. 24-29
ALABAMA: Cygnal (R) for Alabama Conservatives Fund, Nov. 4-5
ABORTION, PANDEMIC STATUS: The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 27-30
YOUNG AMERICANS ON AMERICAN GREATNESS, DEMOCRACY: Harvard IOP, Youth Poll, Public Opinion Project/Ipsos, Oct. 26-Nov. 8
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron