Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 16, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s average job rating is now at his 2016 national popular vote waterline, 46%.... Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 45%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(The Hill) Biden: +6 (45-39)
(The Economist) Biden: +9 (51-42)
(USC) Biden: +7 (50-43)
Average of last four polls: Biden +6.8
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s average lead slipped slightly from 7 points yesterday to 6.8 today.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
FLORIDA (Monmouth): Biden +5
NORTH CAROLINA (CNN): Biden +3
WISCONSIN (CNN): Biden +10
WISCONSIN (WaPo/ABC): Biden +6
States Clinton carried in 2016:
VIRGINIA (VCU): Biden +14
MINNESOTA (WaPo/ABC): Biden +16
RON’S COMMENT: The Florida poll is good news for Biden. The average of the last four polls in Florida puts him ahead by 2.8 points––still too close for comfort, which is why Bloomberg is dumping $100 million into the state…. The Wisconsin polls are also good news for Democrats. Biden leads the last four polls by an average of 7 points…. The North Carolina poll has Biden up, but the average of the last four polls has Trump ahead by a thin three-tenths of a point…. Minnesota looks like it’s gotten away from Trump’s reach. Average of last four polls has Biden up by 10.8 points…. Virginia is no big surprise, although Biden’s 14-point margin is substantial. Clinton beat Trump by 5 points in 2016. From the poll report: “Biden has large leads in South Central Virginia (65%-22%), Northern Virginia (59%-32%) and Tidewater (56%-33%) and Trump has large leads over Biden in the West (63%-36%) and Northwest (58%-36%). Independents are breaking toward Biden by 8 percentage points (46%-38%), with 14% remaining undecided.”
Among voters in each state
Sen. Mark Warner (D) over Daniel Glade (R): +17 (55-38)
COMMENT: Incumbent Warner posts a wide lead over Republican Glade, a college professor and army veteran. Handicappers rate this Senate race safe Democratic.
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +1 (47-46)
COMMENT: This continues to be a white-hot race. Cunningham’s average lead based on the last four polls is 3 points…. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +10 (52-42)
COMMENT: Kelly holds the advantage to pick up this seat for the Democrats. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.
Among voters nationwide
- 32% of voters have a favorable view of journalist/author Bob Woodward and 23% have an unfavorable view.
- 73% have heard about his new book.
- 27% would like to read the book (including 44% of Biden's voters and 8% of Trump's voters)
- 46% say the book is likely to be true and 26% say it’s likely to be untrue.
SUPPORT FOR TRUMP POLICIES
Among voters nationwide
How often do you support or oppose President Trump’s policies?
- Always support Trump’s policies: 13%
- Support Trump’s policies most of the time, but oppose a few: 25%
- 50/50 on Trump’s policies: 9%
- Oppose Trump’s policies most of the time, but support a few: 21%
- Always oppose Trump’s policies: 28%
- Not sure: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: 38% of the electorate mostly support Trump’s policies and 49% mostly oppose his policies. Note that 9% are 50/50 and another 5% are not sure, for a total of 14%…. Among Biden supporters, 3% support Trump’s policies and 89% oppose them…. Among Trump supporters, 83% support his policies and 3% oppose them.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Hill/HarrisX, Sept. 10-14; The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 13-15; USC Sept. 9-15
FLORIDA: Monmouth, Sept. 10-13
NORTH CAROLINA, WISCONSIN: CNN, Sept. 9-13
VIRGINIA: VCU, Aug. 28-Sept. 7
ARIZONA: OH Predictive, Sept. 8-10
MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN: Washington Post/ABC, Sept. 8-13
WOODWARD, SUPPORT FOR TRUMP POLICIES: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 13-15
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron