Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, December 22, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Insider Advantage) to 48% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), putting him at 9 points net negative.
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!
We may be back once or twice during the holidays if there are enough new polls to report. In any case, have a safe, healthy and joyful season.
OHIO: SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 2022
Among Republican voters statewide
REPUBLICAN SENATE PRIMARY
- Josh Mandel: 21%
- J.D. Vance: 15%
- Mike Gibbons: 12%
- Jane Timken: 10%
- Matt Dolan: 5%
- Bernie Moreno: 2%
- Undecided: 34%
RON’S COMMENT: The is for the seat that Sen. Rob Portman (R) is vacating. This Trafalgar (R) poll shows the Republican primary to be wide open with more than a third of party voters undecided…. Mandel is former state treasurer and a two-time Senate candidate…. Vance is the author of Hillbilly Elegy…. Gibbons is an investment banker and a former Senate candidate…. Timken is a former chair of the state party… Dolan is a state senator…. Moreno is a businessman…. There are additional candidates in the race.
- A recent poll by another firm (Moore Information-R) had it: Mandel 21%, Timken 17%, Gibbons 13% and Vance 10%.
- The major Democrats in the race are U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, who ran for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, and Morgan Harper, a former advisor to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. She lost a U.S. House bid in 2020 and has the support of progressive-left groups. Ryan has the support of most of the state’s Democratic establishment.
- Handicappers rate the general election lean, likely or solid Republican.
U.S. ALLIES AND ENEMIES
Among U.S. voters nationwide
Do you consider the countries listed below to be an ally or an enemy of the United States?
% = Ally/Enemy
- UK: 84%/6%
- Israel: 70%/12%
- Taiwan: 65%/9%
- Mexico: 65%/19%
- Ukraine: 60%/12%
- China: 11%/76%
- Russia: 10%/77%
- Iran: 6%/78%
- North Korea: 6%/82%
RON’S COMMENT: Note that both Taiwan and Ukraine are considered allies of the U.S. by large majorities of American voters. China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are all in the dumper.
- When asked directly, 65% of U.S. voters believe China is the greater threat to the U.S. and 27% say Russia. But––there is a divide by party: 42% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans say China is the greater threat.
- In the Economist poll, 44% of voters nationwide approve of Biden’s handling of foreign policy and 48% disapprove. In the Politico/Morning Consult poll, 38% of voters nationwide approve of Biden’s handling of foreign policy and 49% disapprove.
BIDEN AND THE PANDEMIC
Among voters nationwide
[The Economist/YouGov poll] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling COVID-19?
[Politico/Morning Consult poll] Do you approve or disapprove of how President Biden is handling (the coronavirus)?
RON’S COMMENT: These two polls were taken before yesterday’s speech and they show similar results. The Economist poll finds that 13% of Republicans, 83% of Democrats and 37% of independents approve Biden's handling of the pandemic…. When will it end? The Economist poll shows that 14% of voters think the pandemic will be over by the end of 2021, 22% say it will end in 2022 and 37% say after 2022. Also, 22% think it will never end.
INDEPENDENTS: HOW THEY VIEW THE PARTIES
Among independents nationwide
[ASKED OF INDEPENDENTS] Overall, would you say that your political views are closer to the views of the Democratic party or Republican party?
Closer to the Democratic Party: 44%
Closer to the Republican Party: 56%
RON’S COMMENT: More independents say their views are closer to the Republican Party than the Democratic Party.
[ASKED OF INDEPENDENTS] Would you say that the Democratic Party is to the left or right of you?
More to the left: 55%
About the same: 14%
More to the right: 12%
Don’t know: 13%
[ASKED OF INDEPENDENTS] Would you say that the Republican Party is to the left or right of you?
More to the left: 16%
About the same: 16%
More to the right: 48%
Don’t know: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: While 55% of independents say the Democratic Party is to their left, 48% say the Republican Party is to their right.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
OHIO: Trafalgar Group (R), Dec. 12-15
INDEPENDENTS, BIDEN AND THE PANDEMIC, U.S. ALLIES AND ENEMIES: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 12-14
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron