Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 6, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 46% (The Economist, Rasmussen). President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
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TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 46% (-2 since last week)
Trump: 41% (+1 since last week)
It depends: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 8 points last week, since then it’s slipped to 5 points.
TEXAS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 24%
Beto O’Rourke: 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Julian Castro: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Steve Bullock: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Though Biden posts a lead in Texas, his vote appears to be slipping a bit. The previous Texas poll we reported, taken in early August, had Biden at 28%, O’Rourke 19%, Sanders 16% and Warren 14%…. Looks like the days of the “favorite son” are long gone. The current Texas candidates, O’Rourke and Castro, receive a combined vote of only 22% among home-state Democrats.
WEATHER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS
Among adults nationwide
In your opinion, would you say weather-related disasters are more severe, less severe or has there been no change?
More severe: 72%
Less severe: 4%
No change: 24%
[Asked of those who say “more severe”] Do you think more severe weather is mainly due to climate change or natural year-to-year variations in the weather or both equally?
Due to climate change: 50%
Due to natural year-to-year variations in the weather: 12%
Due to both equally: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: Most Americans believe weather-related disasters are more severe. Of them, 87% believe climate change is a factor (50% + 37%) in the increased severity of weather. Note: This poll was taken before the rise of Hurricane Dorian.
GLOBAL POPULISM AND NATIVISM
Among adults in 27 countries around the globe
Findings of global survey:
- The average global citizen feels left out of the “normal order” of life in his/her country:
- 70% agree the economy is rigged to favor the rich and powerful (in the U.S., it's 66%)
- 66% agree that traditional parties and politicians ignore people “like me” (U.S. 67%)
- 54% agree their country’s society is broken (U.S. 60%)
- Disaffection is most widespread in Latin America and Eastern Europe
- The U.S. shows a wide gender gap as a lot more women than men agree with
- The average global citizen wants more hands-on leadership:
- 64% want a strong leader to “take country back” from the rich and powerful (U.S. 66%)
- 62% agree that experts don’t understand people “like me” (U.S. 65%)
- 49% want a strong leader willing to break rules to fix the country (U.S. 35%)
- Agreement with the first two statements is especially prevalent in Spanish-speaking countries
- In the U.S., it is most common in the 35-49 age group and among low and middle-income earners
- The average global citizen is ambivalent about immigration, leaning toward a natives-first view:
- Only 15% say their nation would be better off accepting all immigrants (U.S. 22%)
- 60% say employers should favor natives when jobs are scarce (U.S. 55%)
- 43% agree that immigrants take social services away from natives (U.S. 42%)
- Nativism is most prevalent in Turkey, Malaysia, Serbia and Russia
- In the U.S., nativist views are far less prevalent among the young
For more information on this Ipsos survey, click here
TEXAS: OVERHAUL GOVERNMENT
Among voters statewide
Thinking about the fundamental design and structure of American government, which statement comes closer to your own views – even if neither is exactly right?
- Significant changes to the design and structure are needed to make it work for current times: 61%
- The design and structure serves the country well and does not need significant changes: 38%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows a solid majority of voters in Texas believe “significant changes to the design and structure” of American government are needed.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GLOBAL POPULISM: Ipsos, March 22-April 5, 2019
TEXAS: Texas Lyceum, Aug. 16-25
WEATHER-RELATED NATURAL DISASTERS: AP-NORC, Aug. 15-18
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 1-3