Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 1, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 42% (Politico) to 49% (Emerson). Without these extremes it would still be 45%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-2 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Emerson) Biden +2 (50-44)
(Morning Consult) Biden +8 (51-43)
RON’S COMMENT: The Emerson College poll, conducted Sunday and Monday, shows Biden with a narrow 2-point lead. It should be noted that Biden has not done as well in Emerson’s recent polling as he has in other polls. A month ago, Biden posted a 4-point lead in Emerson's poll while several other surveys had been showing Biden with an average lead of 7.8 points…. The Morning Consult poll, taken Friday thru Sunday, finds a wider 8-point Biden lead. If the Morning Consult polling is accurate, it means that Trump’s “convention” bounce was shortlived…. Bottom line: Let’s wait for more polls before we fixate on any of these numbers.
In the States
State Trump carried in 2016:
MISSOURI: Trump +11
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Missouri by nearly 19 points in 2016. This poll was conducted by a Republican-affiliated firm.
11 State Polls
Morning Consult released numbers in 11 states based on polling they conducted Aug. 21-30, which means the interviewing was done after the Democratic “convention” (Aug. 17-20) and during and after the Republican “convention” (Aug. 24-27)––making these numbers less useful as an analytical tool. Nonetheless, the polling shows:
- Trump leading Ohio by 5 points and Texas by 1 point.
- Biden leading Michigan, Arizona and Colorado by 10 points.
- Biden leading Wisconsin by 9 points.
- Biden leading Minnesota by 7 points.
- Biden leading Pennsylvania by 4 points.
- Biden leading Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida by 2-3 points.
VOTING METHOD AND CANDIDATE SUPPORT
Among voters nationwide
Voting in-person early
Vote in-person on election day
Vote by mail
COMMENT: Voters that plan to vote early in-person break for Trump by 2 points. Election day in-person voters break heavily for Trump by 20 points. Voters that plan to vote by mail favor Biden by a whopping 39 points. If mail ballots are counted last, it could mean Trump’s strength will max out on election night and decline thereafter. Analysts at Hawkfish are calling this the Red Mirage…. In any case, buckle your seatbelts––we’re headed for quite a ride.
Which U.S. vice president lived longest?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VOTING METHOD AND CANDIDATE SUPPORT: Emerson College, Aug. 30-31; Morning Consult, Aug. 28-30
MISSOURI: Trafalgar Group (R), Aug. 26-28
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John Nance Garner, who served as FDR’s VP (1933-1941). He lived 98 years and 350 days. (Levi Morton came in second at 96 years. He was Benjamin Harrison’s VP)