Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, March 18, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Gallup) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 42%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters statewide
Among Democratic primary voters
Bernie Sanders: 39%
Joe Biden: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Pete Buttgieg: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Maybe it’s time to take Bernie Sanders seriously as a nomination candidate? His strength continues to impress. He posts a wide lead in the Wisconsin Democratic primary with Biden second and Warren third…. 55% of Wisconsin Democrats say their party should move to the left, 30% say it should stay where it is and 16% say it should move right.
Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (54-46)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (52-48)
Kamala Harris (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (50-50)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump squeaked out a crucial win in Wisconsin over Hillary Clinton in 2016. This poll shows three Democrats leading him in general election trial heats, with Biden doing the best.
Among voters nationwide
How serious a problem do you think climate change is?
Very serious: 46%
Somewhat serious: 18%
Not very serious: 30%
Not sure: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: Climate change has become a sharply divided partisan issue: 75% of Democrats say climate change is a “very” serious problem, while 40% of independents and 14% of Republicans do. Also, only 4% of Democrats say climate change is “not” a very serious problem, while 23% of independents and 53% of Republicans agree…. You can see why Democratic presidential candidates will be talking a lot about climate change during the nomination campaign…. One complaint about the question this poll asked: there should have been an answer option “not serious at all.” Had they done that, it would not have likely changed the percentage of those saying “very” or “somewhat” serious, but it would have better sorted out those saying “not very” serious.
On the subject of climate change do you think:
The world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity: 55%
The world’s climate is changing but NOT because of human activity: 29%
The world’s climate is NOT changing: 7%
Not sure: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 82% of Democrats say climate is changing as a result of human activity, while 49% of independents an 27% of Republicans do.
On the subject of climate change what do you think Donald Trump believes?
The world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity: 13%
The world’s climate is changing but NOT because of human activity: 39%
The world’s climate is NOT changing: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Only one out of eight voters say Trump believes climate is changing as a result of human activity. But let’s look at what Republicans think: 22% of Republicans say Trump believes climate is changing as a result of human activity, 56% say Trump believes climate is changing but NOT because of human activity and 21% say Trump believes climate is NOT changing.
Has the United States already been harmed by climate change?
Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: 84% of Democrats say the U.S. already been harmed by climate change, while 50% of independents an 30% of Republicans do.
How worried are you that the United States will be harmed by climate change in the next 50 years?
Very worried: 43%
Somewhat worried: 19%
Not very worried: 16%
Not worried at all: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 62% of voters express some level of worry about climate change for the future. By party: 65% of Democrats, 32% of independents and 14% of Republicans are “very” worried.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, SEND A FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO FRIENDS AND CLIENTS WHO WOULD ENJOY RECEIVING IT. GO TO LUNCHTIMEPOLITICS.COM AND ENTER THEIR NAMES AND EMAILS.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WISCONSIN: Emerson College, March 15-17
CLIMATE CHANGE: The Economist/YouGov, March 10-12