Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, March 13, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
Among Republican voters nationwide
Trump vs. Hogan: Who would you support if the 2020 Republican nomination contest was between Donald Trump and Maryland governor Larry Hogan? [If TRUMP or UNSURE: Is it at least somewhat possible that you would support Weld over Trump a year from now or is it not at all possible?]
Trump (firm support): 55%
Trump (but possible Hogan): 20%
Unsure but possible Hogan: 11%
Don’t know: 5%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Trump’s firm support among Republicans is 55% when his GOP opponent is Maryland’s Republican Gov. Hogan––a clear majority, but well short of the high level of intense party support one would have expected…. Add to that 55% another 20%, which gives Trump total support of 75%, which is likely a more accurate picture of his current standing within the GOP for renomination…. Hogan has only 6% firm support, but another possible 31%.... Trump’s firm support is higher among GOP conservatives (64%) than among GOP moderates and liberals (30%). He does a little better with Republican men (56%) than women (53%) and with GOP voters 50 and older (65%) as compared to those under 50 (43%).
Trump vs. Weld: Who would you support if the 2020 Republican nomination contest was between Donald Trump and former Massachusetts governor William Weld? [If TRUMP or UNSURE: Is it at least somewhat possible that you would support Weld over Trump a year from now or is it not at all possible?]
Trump (firm support): 54%
Trump (but possible Weld): 20%
Unsure but possible Weld: 10%
Don’t know: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Similar to the results above. In the race between Trump and Weld, Trump’s firm support among Republicans is 54%. Add to that another 20%, which gives Trump total support of 74%––likely a more accurate picture of his current support for re-nomination. Weld has only 8% firm support, but another possible 30%.... Trump’s firm support is higher among GOP conservatives (63%) than among GOP moderates and liberals (33%).
PERCEPTIONS OF VIOLENT CRIME
Among voters nationwide
Thinking about the nation as a whole, do you think the number of violent crime incidents (homicide, sexual assault, robbery, serious assault) over the past 12 months is higher or lower compared to ten years ago?
About the same: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters think crime is higher now than it was 10 years ago. There is little difference by partisanship. Legislators and candidates who support criminal justice “reforms” need to understand this perception of rising crime when they talk about depopulating prisons and cutting sentences.
MOST IMPORTANT WOMEN IN U.S. HISTORY
Among adult women nationwide
Which of the following female figures do you believe made the MOST important on U.S. history?
- Rosa Parks: 25%
- Harriet Tubman: 13%
- Susan B. Anthony: 12%
- Eleanor Roosevelt: 12%
- Michelle Obama: 11%
- Ruth Bader Ginsburg: 7%
- Betsy Ross: 5%
- Clara Barton: 4%
- Oprah Winfrey: 4%
- Hillary Clinton: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: U.S. women picked an African American––Parks––as the most important female in the nation’s history. Also notice that three of the top five women selected are African Americans. Of the top 10, four are currently alive (Obama, Ginsburg, Winfrey and Clinton).
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP RENOMINATION: Monmouth, March 1-4
VIOLENT CRIME: The Economist/YouGov, March 10-12
MOST IMPORTANT WOMEN IN U.S. HISTORY: YouGov, Feb. 21-22