Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, January 7, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 47%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 44% (The Economist) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 47%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +6 (46-40)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +2 (44-42)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +1 (42-41)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +2 (43-41)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +1 (43-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden does best against Trump. The other Democrats are in close contests with the president.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 31%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Michael Bloomberg: 7%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Tom Steyer: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 2% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since last week, Biden went down 1, Sanders is up 2 and Bloomberg is up 1…. By age cohorts: Sanders wins Gen Z (18-21) and Millennials (22-37). Biden wins Gen X (38-53) and Boomers (54-72).
TRUMP AND CLINTON
Among voters nationwide
Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person––or if you've never heard of them.
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers don’t bode well for Hillary Clinton if she wants to make a comeback––she’s still less popular than her 2016 rival.
Among voters statewide
Do you think 6 months from now the economy will be as it is now, going into a recession, or improving further?
Same as it is now: 47%
Going into a recession: 30%
NATIONAL: 2024 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
Among Republican primary voters nationwide
Mike Pence: 40%
Donald Trump, Jr.: 29%
Nikki Haley: 26%
Ivanka Trump: 16%
Marco Rubio: 15%
Mike Pompeo: 13%
Greg Abbott: 13%
Rick Scott: 8%
Ron DeSantis: 8%
Tim Scott: 7%
Tom Cotton: 6%
Liz Cheney: 5%
Elise Stefanik: 4%
Ben Sasse: 3%
Josh Hawley: 2%
Larry Hogan: 2%
Others: 15% RON’S COMMENT: At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, here’s a national poll of Republicans showing who they would consider in the 2024 race for the party’s presidential nomination. As you can see, Pence leads the GOP field. But, when you add the combined support of Donald, Jr. and Ivanka Trump, the president’s children get a total of 45%, overtaking Pence. In this line-up, Haley is third and Rubio, who ran in 2016, is fifth. They’re followed by Sec. of State Pompeo and Texas Gov. Abbott…. Warning label: This data is presented for entertainment value only. A lot will happen in politics between now and 2024. For that matter, a lot will happen in politics between now and next week.
Who was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry Vermont?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT, DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult
TRUMP AND CLINTON, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Harvard-Harris, Dec. 27-29
2024 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION: Axios/Survey Monkey, Dec. 14-17
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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George H.W. Bush in 1988