Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, March 10, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Quinnipiac) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters nationwide
Biden over Trump: +11 (52-41)
Sanders over Trump: +7 (49-42)
Biden over Trump: +10 (53-43)
Sanders over Trump: +7 (52-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Both Biden and Sanders are beating Trump in these two polls, but Biden does best. In the Quinnipiac poll, the former VP wins Democrats 93-2, independents 52-34, white women 52-42, blacks 88-5 and Hispanics 57-30. Trump wins Republicans 91-6, white men 58-34 and all whites 50-44.
SWING STATES: PRESIDENT
Among voters in each state
(Monmouth) Biden over Trump: +7 (48-47)
(Yahoo) Biden over Trump: +4 (45-41)
Biden over Trump: +2 (44-42)
Biden over Trump: +6 (46-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden beats Trump in these three critical swing states, all of which voted for Trump in 2016 by small margins. Wisconsin is the tightest.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Quinnipiac/CNN = Average
Joe Biden: 54%/52% = 53
Bernie Sanders: 35%/36% = 35.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/- = 1
RON’S COMMENT: Biden now holds a solid national lead over Sanders. In the Quinnipiac poll, Biden wins men by 17 points and women by 20 points. Biden also wins white college grads by 34 points…. In the CNN poll, Biden beats Sanders 57-31 on the economy, 49-36 on immigration and 67-23 on foreign policy. Sanders beats Biden 46-43 on healthcare and 45-42 on climate. Also: Biden beats Sanders 66-26 on electability against Trump.
Among Democratic primary voters in each state
(DFP) Biden over Sanders: +21 (59-38)
(Monmouth) Biden over Sanders: +15 (51-36)
(Yahoo) Biden over Sanders: +13 (54-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Three more polls showing Biden with solid leads in Michigan, today’s delegate prize…. The Monmouth poll shows Biden winning women in Michigan by 20 points, while Sanders wins men by 10 points. Sanders wins voters under 50 by 11 points. Biden wins voters 50-64 by 32 points and those 65+ by 46 points…. 125 delegates are at stake.... Sanders won the 2016 Michigan primary over Hillary Clinton by nearly 2 points.
Biden over Sanders: +21 (59-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Another big lead for Biden. In 2016, Sanders lost Missouri to Hillary Clinton by a mere two-tenths of a point. The primary is today for 68 delegates.
Biden over Sanders: +11 (49-38)
RON’S COMMENT: This primary is April 7 and 84 delegates are at stake.
Biden over Sanders: +28 (59-31)
RON’S COMMENT: This primary isn’t until April 28, when 186 delegates are at stake.
When was the last time Michigan did NOT vote for the presidential winner in a general election?
(See answer below)
Democratic primary schedule
- Michigan––125 delegates
- Washington state––89 delegates
- Missouri––68 delegates
- Mississippi––36 delegates
- Idaho––20 delegates
- North Dakota caucuses––14 delegates
- Florida––219 delegates
- Illinois––155 delegates
- Ohio––136 delegates
- Arizona––67 delegates
- Georgia––105 delegates
- Puerto Rico––51 delegates
- Louisiana––54 delegates
- Hawaii––24 delegates
- Alaska––15 delegates
- Wyoming––14 delegates
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Quinnipiac, Feb. 4-8; CNN, Feb. 4-7
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, Feb. 4-8; CNN, Feb. 4-7
MICHIGAN: Monmouth, Feb. 3-8; Yahoo/YouGov, Feb. 6-8; Data for Progress (D), Feb. 7-9
WISCONSIN: Yahoo/YouGov, Feb. 6-8
PENNSYLVANIA: Yahoo/YouGov, Feb. 6-8
MISSOURI: Optimus, Feb. 7-9
2004. Michigan voted for John Kerry in 2004––but voted for winners Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016.