Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 19, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Economist) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 43%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
BELTWAY OPINION LEADER SURVEYS BY CERTUS INSIGHTS
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Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +6 (50-44-2-1)
Average of last three 4-way polls: Biden +8.7
RON’S COMMENT: Surprisingly few polls today.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
WISCONSIN (CBS): Biden +5
ARIZONA (CBS): Biden +3
MISSOURI (Scout): Trump +6
RON’S COMMENT: Internal numbers from key states of Wisconsin and Arizona––
- 24% of Wisconsin voters say they have already voted, and that includes 39% of Democrats and 15% of Republicans.
- Trump wins on the economy 47-46 and Biden wins on the coronavirus 53-34.
- 54% say they like Biden personally and 32% say they like Trump personally.
- 47% say Biden is most concerned about the middle class, 35% say the wealthy and elite and 18% say the poor.
- 35% say Trump is most concerned about the middle class, 60% say the wealthy and elite and 5% say the poor.
- 26% of all Arizona voters say they‘ve already voted, and that includes 39% of Democrats and 15% of Republicans.
- Trump wins on the economy 47-44 and Biden wins on the coronavirus 50-39.
- 50% say they like Biden personally and 34% say they like Trump personally.
- 43% say Biden is most concerned about the middle class, 42% say the wealthy and elite and 15% say the poor.
- 34% say Trump is most concerned about the middle class, 58% say the wealthy and elite and 8% say the poor.
Among voters in each state
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +11 (52-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Handicappers rate the contest lean or tilt Democratic.
WHITMER KIDNAPPING THREAT
Among voters nationwide
[The] Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested 6 people in Michigan, charging them with conspiring to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Seven others tied to a related paramilitary group were also arrested and charged with state terrorism threats against law enforcement officers. Do you believe that these people arrested by the FBI...
Presented a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety: 64%
Did not present a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety: 11%
Not sure: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: 78% of Democrats, 58% of independents and 51% of Republicans say the kidnap threat presented a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety.
TRUTHFULNESS: BY INFORMATION SOURCE
Among adults nationwide
How confident are you that the content or information you receive from each of the following sources is true…?
Something I saw with my own eyes: 92%
Government records (birth/death/marriage; property, licenses, etc.): 84%
My memory: 80%
Live audio/video as it happens: 76%
Statements from researchers/academics: 76%
Eyewitness statements: 57%
My religious leaders: 56%
Communications or advertising from major companies: 40%
Statements from government officials: 36%
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: IBD/TIPP, Oct. 14-18
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
TRUTHFULNESS: BY INFORMATION SOURCE: Ipsos, Aug. 25-26
WHITMER: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 11-13
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron