Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, September 10, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Sept. 2
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five six, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen. Insider Advantage). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Sept. 2), making him 11 points net negative.
Among voters statewide
FLORIDA (seat now R)
- (Fox 35) Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +2 (46-44)
- (Susquehanna) Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +3 (47-44)
- (Fabrizio/Anzalone) Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +2 (49-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Rubio has his hands full. While he still leads, Demings is well within striking distance in all three polls. Rubio’s average lead today is only 2.3 points…. Independents matter: The Susquehanna poll report says Demings has narrowed the gap largely based on a shift among independents, a critical group she now wins by 9 points. In 2016, Rubio won independents by 10 points.
GEORGIA (seat now D)
- Herschel Walker (R) over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): +3 (47-44-4)
RON’S COMMENT: Despite controversies surrounding his statements and personal life, Walker now edges Warnock, who is being forced to defend his progressivism. Since July, Warnock lost 4 points and Walker picked up 2 points…. "Warnock is winning among younger voters and seniors but trails badly among those 40-64. Men support Walker at 60%, while women support Warnock at 55%. Walker is receiving 12% support from African American respondents," says the pollster. "With only 4% undecided, this race could very well be headed to a General Election runoff given the fact that there seems to be few points among the various demographics up for grabs."
NORTH CAROLINA (seat now R)
- Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +3 (47-44-4)
RON’S COMMENT: This GOP poll has Budd with a small lead. A previous poll, from a Democratic outfit, had Beasley ahead by 1.
ARIZONA (seat now D)
- (Fox 10) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +6 (45-39)
- (Emerson) Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +2 (47-45)
RON'S COMMENT: Kelly's average lead from these two polls is a modest 4 points. A number of local pols say they think the Fox 10 margin is closer to reality. We'll see.
Among voters statewide
FLORIDA (seat now R)
- (Fabrizio Anzalone) Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +3 (50-47)
- (Susquehanna) Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +4 (47-43)
- (Fox 35) Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +5 (50-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent DeSantis leads Crist, but by fairly modest margins…. Are independents an insurance policy for DeSantis? “Among Independents who have committed to a candidate, Crist leads 36:31, but nearly 1 in 3 (or 32%) are undecided,” says the Susquehanna poll report. “These undecided Independents could break for DeSantis because 45% of Independents view DeSantis favorably, while they view Crist more unfavorably [than favorably] by a 39:32 margin.”
ARIZONA (seat now R)
- (Fox 10) Katie Hobbs (D) over Kari Lake (R): +1 (44-43-3)
- (Emerson) Katie Hobbs (D) and Kari Lake (R): even (46-46)
RON’S COMMENT: This is a barn-burner.
MICHIGAN (seat now D)
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor (R): +13 (48-35)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Whitmer well ahead of her Republican opponent in what has become a vital swing state. Still worth watching, Michigan races tend to shift around in the last four to six weeks.
GEORGIA (seat now R)
- Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): + (50-42-1)
RON’S COMMENT: Challenger Abrams is struggling to get into contention…. “Kemp leads in every age group in the survey. He receives right at 10% of African American support and a rather astounding 68% of white voters surveyed. Abrams has an impressive 54% of female voters while Kemp receives 63% from men," explains the pollster, Matt Lowery. "Kemp has support from 50% of independents. With two months to go, Kemp would seem poised to potentially escape Georgia’s General Election runoff requirement."
TEXAS (seat now R)
- Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +7 (49-42-2)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Abbott holds a lead. But note: Among the most likely “almost certain” voters, Abbott leads O’Rourke by 12, 53-41…. Says the poll report: Older Texans belonging to the Silent Generation/Baby Boomer cohort and to Generation X favor Abbott over O’Rourke by margins of 28 points and 11 points, respectively. O’Rourke is the candidate of choice among Millennials and Generation Z by margins of 21 points and 23 points.
NEW YORK (seat now D)
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +15 (50-35)
RON'S COMMENT: While incumbent Hochul has her share of weaknesses, she continues to post solid leads in trial heats.
MASSACHUSETTS (seat now D)
- Maura Healey (D) over Geoff Diehl (R): +18 (52-34-3)
RON’S COMMENT: Massachusetts is a very blue state, but it has had a popular moderate Republican governor, Charlie Baker, for the last eight years. Baker is not seeking re-election. Republican Diehl is seen as being too pro-Trump and too far right to win this race.
TRUMP: CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS
Among voters nationwide
Do you think former President Trump should face any criminal charges for how he handled classified documents after leaving office?
- Yes, should face criminal charges: 47%
- No: 39%
- Not sure: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Democrats, 11% of Republicans and 39% of independents say Trump should face criminal charges for how he handled classified documents after leaving office.
- This poll also asked voters whether Trump should run for president in 2024––only 30% say he should run and 58% say he should not run.... Interestingly, 25% of Republicans say he should not run and another 16% say they’re not sure for a total of 41% of Republicans who have doubts about him running again.
Among U.S. voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of [Mikhail Gorbachev]?
- Favorable: 47%
- Unfavorable: 26%
- Don’t know: 30%
RON’S COMMENT: 52% of Democrats, 41% of Republicans and 37% of independents have favorable feelings toward the former Soviet leader. Also: 50% of 18-29-year-olds don’t know enough about him to provide a rating.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ARIZONA: Emerson, Sept., 6-7; Fox 10/Insider Advantage, Sept. 6-7
NEW YORK: The Hill/Emerson, Sept. 4-6
GEORGIA: Fox 5/Insider Advantage, Sept. 6-7
FLORIDA: Fox 35/ Insider Advantage, Sept. 6-7; Susquehanna, Aug. 29-Sept. 4; Fabrizio (R)/Anzalone (D), Aug. 24-31
MASSACHUSETTS: Emerson College, Sept. 7-8
TEXAS: Univ. of Houston, Aug. 11-29
MICHIGAN: Detroit News, Aug. 29-Sept. 1
GORBACHEV, TRUMP DOCUMENTS: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 3-6
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron