Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 5, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (WSJ/NBC) to 46% (Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP). Without these extremes it would still be 45%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Reuters) Biden +10 (51-41-4)
(Yahoo) Biden +8 (48-40)
(WSJ/NBC) Biden +14 (53-39)
(The Hill) Biden +7 (47-40)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +3 (49-46)
Today’s average: Biden +8.4
RON’S COMMENT: All of these polls were taken after the debate and the average gives Biden a clear lead.... Polls out so far that tested each candidate's performance in the debate have generally found Biden the winner by clear to wide margins.... The Reuters and Yahoo polls were taken after President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis…. The WSJ/NBC poll shows Biden’s lead expanding from 10 to 14 points over the previous 10 days; The Hill poll shows Biden’s lead expanding from 5 to 7 points over the previous week; the IBD poll shows Biden’s lead declining from 6 to 3 points over the previous two weeks.
- In the WSJ/NBC poll: Biden beats Trump on the debate 49-24. An additional 17% said neither were good. As a result of the debate, 19% are more likely to support Biden and 6% are more likely to support Trump. A big 73% say it made no difference.
- In the Yahoo/YouGov poll: 20% of Biden’s voters and 51% of Trump’s voters will vote in person on election day; 23% of Biden’s voters and 23% of Trump’s voters will vote early in person; and, 57% of Biden’s voters and 26% of Trump’s voters will vote by mail.
- The Yahoo/YouGov poll also finds that 60% of Biden’s supporters are extremely or very enthused about voting, while 59% of Trump’s supporters feel the same way. Also: 82% of Biden’s supporters and 80% of Trump’s supporters “care a lot” about who wins.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
PENNSYLVANIA (CBS): Biden +7
PENNSYLVANIA (NYT): Biden +7
FLORIDA (NYT): Biden +5
OHIO (NYT): Even
MISSOURI (Scout): Trump +5
RON’S COMMENT: The two Pennsylvania post-debate polls show Biden with clear leads in this critical state. The post-debate Ohio poll has the race a tie and the post-debate Florida poll has Biden with a lead. While Trump leads Missouri, his 5-point edge is much smaller than the actual 19-point lead he won with in 2016.
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Amy Coney Barrett: 27%/21%
Joe Biden: 43%/41%
Kamala Harris: 40%/38%
Mike Pence: 36%/47%
Donald Trump: 39%/55%
RON’S COMMENT: Barrett has a net positive rating; Trump and Pence have net negative ratings; Biden and Harris have slightly positive-leaning ratings. The poll was taken after the debate.
TRUMP AND THE VIRUS
Among adults nationwide
RON’S COMMENT: The following poll results are based on a sample of adults, not voters. As such, they are likely less favorable toward the president than would be a sample of registered or likely voters.
Approval: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the response to the
Handle duties: As you may know, Donald Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus. Do you think he will or will not be able to effectively handle his duties as president if there is a military or national security crisis?
Will be able to handle duties: 50%
Will not be able to handle duties: 50%
Taken risk seriously: In his comments and actions, do you think Donald Trump has or has not taken the risk of contracting the coronavirus seriously enough?
Has taken seriously enough: 27%
Has not taken seriously enough: 72%
Appropriate precautions: Thinking about the coronavirus, do you think Donald Trump took the appropriate precautions when it came to his personal health, or not?
COMMENT: Most adults polled believe the president has not taken the risk of contracting COVID-19 seriously enough and, separately, did not take the appropriate precautions. In both of the questions, 43% of Republicans said the President did not take the risk seriously enough and did not take the appropriate precautions. 95% and 94% of Democrats, respectively, gave those responses.
Among voters nationwide
% = Trump/Biden
Dealing with the economy: 48%/41% (+7 Trump)
Dealing with crime and violence: 41%/45% (+4 Biden)
Having strong leadership qualities: 40%/45% (+5 Biden)
Making appointments to the Supreme Court: 37%/46% (+9 Biden)
Dealing with the coronavirus: 35%/52% (+17 Biden)
Dealing with healthcare: 34%/53% (+19 Biden)
Dealing with race relations: 26%/55% (+29 Biden)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden beats Trump by the biggest margins on race relations, healthcare and the coronavirus. Trump beats Biden only on the economy.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: Reuters, Oct. 2-3; YouGov/Yahoo, Oct. 2-3; WSJ/NBC, Sept. 30-Oct. 1; TIPP/IBD, Sept. 30-Oct. 1; The Hill/HarrisX, Sept. 30-Oct. 1
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS, ISSUE RATINGS: WSJ/NBC, Sept. 30-Oct. 1
TRUMP AND THE VIRUS: ABC/Ipsos, Oct. 2–3
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron