Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, December 16, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 45%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-2 from Friday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating…. Internals: The Fox News poll pegs Trump’s overall approval at 45%, same as today's average. By groups, it’s: 51% among men, 41% among women, 37% among suburban women, 11% among Democrats, 85% among Republicans and 41% among independents. Interestingly, Trump does better among Republican women than Republican men––87% vs. 84%.
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Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +7 (48-41)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +6 (49-43)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +5 (45-40)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +1 (46-45)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +1 (43-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg post clear leads over Trump in this Fox News poll, while Warren and Buttigieg are running slightly ahead.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 30%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Bad news for Warren. Compared to the Fox News poll from late October, she is down 8, Biden is down 1 and Sanders is up 1. This is the best Klobuchar has done in a national poll since October when she hit 5% in a WSJ/NBC poll…. More survey findings:
- Fluidity: Nearly half of Democrats (49%) say there is a chance they could change their mind on candidate preferences.
- Electability: 77% of Democrats think Biden can beat Trump, 60% say Sanders can, 59% say Warren can, 55% say Bloomberg can and 48% say Buttigieg can. Electability scores have improved for all Democratic candidates since the end of October (Biden +9, Sanders +6, Warren +2 and Buttigieg +18). Keep in mind, this is among Democrats only.
- Independents in primaries: 22% of independents say they will vote in Democratic primaries for president, while 16% say they’ll vote in GOP primaries.
- Super Tuesday states: A CBS poll of the 14 states that will hold primaries Super Tuesday, Match 3, shows Biden 28%, Warren 25%, Sanders 20%, Buttigieg 9%, Bloomberg 4% and Yang, Klobuchar and Booker with 3% each.... Super Tuesday will be Bloomberg's first major test.... The poll finds that 47% of Democrats are “nervous” about the 2020 election, 39% are “optimistic,” 22% “excited” and 18% “inspired.”
TRUMP’S TRADE DEALS
Among voters nationwide
Do you believe Donald Trump has been successful in revising trade deals with other countries to make them more favorable to the U.S., or don’t you think so?
Yes, he has: 42%
No, he hasn’t: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: 11% of Democrats, 78% of Republicans and 35% of independents say Trump has been successful in revising trade deals.
Among voters nationwide
Who do you think is better at Washington gamesmanship––President Donald Trump or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi?
RON’S COMMENT: In January, Pelosi beat Trump by 6 points on this question, now she’s 4 points ahead.
Among voters statewide
Wealth tax: Creating an annual two percent wealth tax on an individual’s worth over $50 million dollars in addition to income tax?
Medicare option: Changing the health care system so that every American can buy into Medicare if they want to?
Marijuana: Legalizing the recreational use of marijuana on a national level?
Obamacare: Making minor changes to Obamacare while largely leaving the law in place?
Wall: Building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border?
Government-run: Getting rid of private health insurance and moving to a government-run healthcare system for everyone?
RON’S COMMENT: Getting rid of private health insurance is down 5 points since September…. Making minor changes to Obamacare is down 4 points since September…. Support for legalizing recreational marijuana is up 17 points since 2013…. 15% of Democrats favor the wall, while 78% of Republicans and 39% of independents do…. 57% of Democrats favor government-run healthcare, while 24% of Republicans and 38% of independents do…. 83% of Democrats favor the wealth tax, while 51% of Republicans (wow!) and 68% of independents do.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP’S TRADE DEALS, BETTER OFF FOUR YEARS AGO, ISSUE PREFERENCES,DC GAMESMANSHIP: Fox News, Dec. 8-11