Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 18, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (ABC/Wash Post) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters in each state and district
TENNESSEE: Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +3 (47-44)
FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) over Sen. Bill Nelson (D): +2 (49-47)
INDIANA: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over Mike Braun (R): +4 (44-40-L7)
NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Menendez (D) over Bob Hugin (R): +7 (51-44)
NEW JERSEY (Monmouth): Sen. Bob Menendez (D) over Bob Hugin (R): +9 (49-40)
NEW YORK: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D)over Chele Farley (R): +25 (58-33)
RON’S COMMENT: Four Democratic incumbents are tested today. One is running far ahead, one slightly behind, one slightly ahead and the fourth would be in deep trouble if it weren’t for his state’s blue leanings.
TENNESSEE––Republican Blackburn posts a fairly narrow 3-point lead in this open seat race. That’s a drop from where she was in other polls. The three previous surveys had her up an average of 9 points. Does this mean the Kavanaugh bounce is diminishing?
FLORIDA––This poll shows that 61% of voters approve of Gov. Scott’s handling of recent Hurricane Michael, and only 21% disapprove. That may be the major reason why he has erased the thin lead his opponent, Democratic incumbent Nelson, has had in recent polls. This poll also finds that 24% of the state’s voters have already cast their ballots. The average of recent polling has the race a tie. The final days of this race will be brutal. This is a big, expensive state, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
INDIANA––Donnelly’s margin is modest and his GOP opponent remains well within striking distance. Democrat Donnelly is drawing 15% of Republicans and Republican Braun is drawing 6% of Democrats. The Libertarian is getting 5% of Republicans and 4% of Democrats. According to this survey, Trump’s job rating in Indiana is 50% approve/45% disapprove––better than it is nationwide. Donnelly’s rating is barely net positive, 40% approve/39% disapprove.
NEW JERSEY––Democrat Menendez’s vulnerability is personal. His ratings are terrible (36% favorable/52% unfavorable in one poll, 28% favorable/45% unfavorable in another) and many voters doubt his honesty. But, both polls today show Menendez with leads and have him hovering around the 50% mark, which means anti-Trump voters are opposing anybody with an R by their name. That limits Republican Hugin’s capacity to break through. The Monmouth poll also finds that Hugin’s involvement with the pharmaceutical industry isn’t helping him. Local Democratic operatives believe Menendez will win, but admit the situation remains precarious––and that makes their Election Day turnout operation that much more important.
GEORGIA: Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +1 (47-46)
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +1 (47-46)
NEW YORK: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) over Marc Molinaro (R): +23 (58-35)
CALIFORNIA (LA Times/USC): Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +23 (54-31)
CALIFORNIA (Thomas Partners): Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +8 (51-43)
GEORGIA––This poll shows a 1-point race. The three previous polls all had Republican Kemp ahead by 2 points.
FLORIDA––The Sunshine State should be called the Squeaker State. Ever since the 2000 presidential election, this place has had more than its share of notably close races. The average of recent polling has Democrat Gillum ahead by a single point.
CALIFORNIA––Poll margins have been bouncing around, but Democrat Newsom holds a clear lead in all of them. The average of recent polling has him ahead by 16 points. The LA Times/USC poll, it should be noted, had an unusually lengthy interviewing window of nearly four weeks. Also, the Thomas Partners automated poll called only landlines.
NEW YORK––To hear incumbent Cuomo on the stump, you’d think he’s running against Donald Trump and not Marc Molinaro. Hey, wait, maybe he is?
KANSAS 3: Sharice Davids (D) over Rep. Kevin Yoder (R): +9 (48-39)
COLORADO 6: Jason Crow (D) over Rep. Mike Coffman (R): +9 (47-38)
KANSAS 3––Both candidates’ percentages have gone down several points over the past three weeks. Guess that means the attacks are working? Yoder has raised $3.8 million and Davids has raised $3.1 million. Though Romney won the district by 10 points in 2012, Clinton beat Trump here by a point. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Democratic.
COLORADO 6––Another race where both candidates’ percentages have gone down over the past month, and another race where the Democratic challenger holds a clear lead over the GOP incumbent. Clinton beat Trump in the district by 9 points. So far, Crow has outraised Coffman, $4.5 million to $3.2 million. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Democratic.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TENNESSEE, GEORGIA: Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics, Oct. 4-11
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Oct. 15-16
INDIANA: Gravis, Oct. 12-16
NEW YORK: Quinnipiac, Oct. 10-16
NEW JERSEY: Quinnipiac, Oct. 10-16; Monmouth, Oct. 11-15
CALIFORNIA: Thomas Partners/KFI/NBC4, Oct. 12-14; LA Times/USC, Sept. 17-Oct. 14
KANSAS 3: NYT/Siena, Oct. 14-17
COLORADO 6: NYT/Siena, Oct. 13-17