Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 4, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 37% (Gallup) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 41%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today, which is 15 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters statewide
General Election (among all voters)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +4 (52-48)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +1 (51-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +6 (53-47)
3-way: Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +9 (49-40-Howard Schultz 11)
RON’S COMMENT: The only Democrat leading Trump in Iowa is Biden. The president tops all other rivals, although he barely edges Sanders by 1 point (note: the 51-50 margin is due to rounding). While Iowa has often been a swing state in presidential elections, Trump carried it by a substantial margin of nearly 10 points in 2016.... Note that Trump beats Warren by 4 points in a two-way race, but expands his lead to 9 points when Howard Schultz is in the mix as an independent.
Democratic Caucus (among Democratic voters)
Joe Biden: 29%
Kamala Harris: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Beto O’Rourke: 6%
Cory Booker: 4%
Sherrod Brown: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
John Delaney: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads this poll of Iowa Democrats. But, what’s most interesting is Harris moving up to second place. She’s gotten a bigger bounce from her announcement than any other candidate. Also worth noting is that O’Rourke’s standing has slipped in recent polling. The following are excerpts from Emerson’s poll report:
- Only 20% of Democratic caucus-goers support an increase funding for border security. 44% are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports border funding.
- 73% of Democrats are more likely to support candidates that support Medicare for All, 8% are less likely.
- 73% of Democrats are more likely to support a candidate who supports an assault weapons ban.
- 73% of Democratic voters also are more likely to favor a candidate supportive of increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
U.S. TAX SYSTEM
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the tax system in the United States favors the wealthy?
Do you think the tax system in the United States has too many loopholes?
Do you think the tax system in the United States is too complex?
RON’S COMMENT: 87% of Democrats, 74% of independents and 55% of Republicans say the tax system favors the wealthy.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Emerson, Jan. 30-Feb. 2
U.S. TAX SYSTEM: Politico/Morning Consult, Feb. 1-2
AS WE MOVE INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, SEND A FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO FRIENDS AND CLIENTS WHO WOULD ENJOY RECEIVING IT. GO TO LUNCHTIMEPOLITICS.COM AND ENTER THEIR NAMES AND EMAILS.