Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 23, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Note that Trump's average job rating today (46%) is higher than his vote in today's three national polls (42%).... Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (CNBC, Politico) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 47%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(CNBC)Biden +9 (51-42-4-1)
(USC) Biden +9 (51-42)
(Economist) Biden +7 (49-42)
Today’s average: Biden +8.3
Average of last five polls: Biden +7.2
RON’S COMMENT: A good bit of the interviewing for these polls was conducted after Justice Ginsburg’s death. The Economist poll was conducted entirely after her passing.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
FLORIDA (Wapo/ABC): Trump +4
FLORIDA (CNBC): Biden +3
FLORIDA (St. Pete): Biden +3
ARIZONA (Wapo/ABC): Trump +1
ARIZONA (CNBC): Biden +6
NORTH CAROLINA (Reuters): Even
NORTH CAROLINA (CNBC): Biden +2
MICHIGAN (Reuters): Biden +5
MICHIGAN (CNBC): Biden +8
PENNSYLVANIA (CNBC): Biden +4
WISCONSIN (CNBC): Biden +9
RON’S COMMENT: Dueling polls today. The Washington Post/ABC poll shows Trump leading in Florida and Arizona while the CNBC poll has Biden ahead in both states. The St. Pete poll confirms the CNBC survey in Florida…. Neither candidate can establish a clear lead in North Carolina. Looks like a barnburner 'til the end…. Michigan and Wisconsin keep looking good for Biden.
Among voters in each state
GEORGIA Special Election; Open Primary (Monmouth)
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 23%
Doug Collins (R): 23%
Raphael Warnock (D): 23%
Matt Lieberman (D): 11%
Ed Tarver (D): 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Look at this––a three-way tie for first place. The open primary is Nov. 3 and a runoff, if needed, will feature the top two finishers…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
GEORGIA Regular Election (Monmouth)
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +5 (48-43)
COMMENT: Handicappers rate the race either a tossup or tilt/lean Republican.
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +6 (49-43)
COMMENT: Yesterday, we reported a poll that had Peters’ lead shrinking to 2 points. This poll has it at 6 points. Based on the last four polls, Peters has an average lead of 4 points…. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.
(Reuters) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +4 (48-44)
(Civitas) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +6 (44-38)
(CNBC) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +5 (48-43)
COMMENT: Based on these three polls, Democrat Cunningham has an average lead of 5 points. Handicappers still rate the race a tossup, despite the polling lead.
- A recent SurveyUSA poll shows that 21% of North Carolina’s voters intend to vote by mail, 40% intend to vote earlyin personand 35% intend to vote in person on Election Day.
TRUMP VS. BIDEN ON ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
I would like you to compare Donald Trump and Joe Biden on a few issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be better on that issue.
- Securing the border and controlling immigration: Trump over Biden +16
- Dealing with the economy: Trump over Biden +10
- Dealing with China: Trump over Biden +9
- Dealing with crime and violence: Trump over Biden +2
- Dealing with health care: Biden over Trump +22
- Dealing with the coronavirus: Biden over Trump +22
- Dealing with race relations: Biden over Trump +24
- Treating immigrants humanely and protecting immigrant rights: Biden over Trump +32
- Dealing with climate change: Biden over Trump +39
SEVERE WEATHER, WILDFIRES
Among adults nationwide
Do you think the severity of recent hurricanes and Western wildfires is most likely the result of global climate change, or is it just the kind of severe weather events that happen from time to time?
Yes, the result of climate change: 45%
No, not due to climate change: 39%
RON’S COMMENT: 69% of Democrats, 41% of independents and 22% of Republicans say the severity of recent hurricanes and Western wildfires is most likely the result of global climate change.
U.S. SUPREME COURT JUSTICES: AGE
Ages and presidential appointments of current Court members
- Stephen Breyer: 82 (Clinton)
- Clarence Thomas: 72 (Bush 41)
- Sam Alito: 70 (Bush 43)
- Sonia Sotomayor: 66 (Obama)
- John Roberts: 65 (Bush 43)
- Elena Kagan: 60 (Obama)
- Brett Kavanaugh: 55 (Trump)
- Neil Gorsuch: 53 (Trump)
Ruth Bader Ginsburg was 87 when she died last week. She was appointed by President Clinton.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL POLLS: POLLSTERS INDICATED ALONG WITH RESULTS; MOST INTERVIEWING DONE WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, OR OTHERWISE NOTED.
SEVERE WEATHER, WILDFIRES: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 13-15
TRUMP VS. BIDEN ON ISSUES: WSJ/NBC, Sept. 13-16
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron