Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, January 30, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 38% (ABC/WaPo, Quinnipiac) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 43%....President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 13 points higher than his approval rating.
PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Kamala Harris: 10%
Beto O’Rourke: 6%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%
Cory Booker: 3%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Sherrod Brown: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0%
RON’S COMMENT: This is starting to get interesting. In this new poll, Biden maintains a big lead over the field with Sanders second. Harris’ announcement worked for her––she’s now moved up to third position, leaving former third-place finishers Warren and O’Rourke in her dust. Looks like announcements by Gillibrand, Castro and Gabbard were busts, each languish at 1% or less.
PRESIDENT: NEW HAMPSHIRE
Among voters statewide
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +13 (54-41)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +13 (54-41)
Beto O’Rourke (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +7 (48-41)
RON’S COMMENT: New Hampshire is a swing state in presidential politics. Hillary Clinton beat Trump there by only four-tenths of a point…. Trump is now losing to the three Democrats tested in this poll, two of which (Warren and Sanders) are from neighboring states…. When only Democrats in New Hampshire were asked whether Hillary Clinton, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Warren best represents the Democratic Party, Warren wins with 55% and Ocasio-Cortez is second with 28%. The 2016 nominee, Hillary Clinton, is third with 17%.
GOVERNOR: LOUISIANA 2019
Among statewide nationwide
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D): 45%
Ralph Abraham (R): 17%
Eddie Rispone (R): 4%
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) over Ralph Abraham (R): +20 (47-27)
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) over Eddie Rispone (R): +28 (47-19)
RON’S COMMENT: Louisiana is a red state, but Democratic incumbent Edwards starts his re-election bid with a wide lead over his two announced GOP rivals. Abraham, a member of Congress from north Louisiana, is largely unknown outside his district. Rispone, a wealthy businessman, is largely unknown statewide. Both Republicans are now aiming to get Edwards into a runoff where they hope the state’s big conservative vote will wipe out the incumbent’s early advantage…. Edwards has a job approval rating of 50% in this poll, which was conducted for an advocacy group supporting him…. The state’s top issues: Economy and jobs 37%, education 35%, crime and criminal justice 28%; health care 20%, taxes 18%, traffic and transportation 12%, state budget and spending 11%; coastal restoration 8% and voting rights 2%.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: ANGRY OR ENTHUSIASTIC?
Among voters nationwide
I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
Satisfied but not enthusiastic: 18%
Dissatisfied but not angry: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: 21% of Republicans, 39% of Democrats and 29% of independents say they’re angry.
SUPER BOWL INTEREST DIPS
Among adults nationwide
How much interest do you have in this year’s Super Bowl game––a lot, a little, or none at all?
A lot: 16%
A little: 34%
None at all: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: The percentage of Americans with “a lot” of interest in the Super Bowl is down 5 points from last year, sliding from 21% to 16%––meaning that nearly a quarter of those with a lot of interest last year no longer feel it. Those with no interest at all has risen by 5 points, from 45% last year to 50% this year.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, Jan. 25-27
NEW HAMPSHIRE: NHJournal Poll
LOUISIANA: LJR Custom Strategies for Education Reform Now Advocacy, a group supporting Edwards (D)
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Quinnipiac, Jan. 25-28
SUPER BOWL: Monmouth, Jan. 25-27
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.