Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, March 11, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without those extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters statewide
Trump over Biden: +2 (51-49)
Trump over Sanders: +6 (53-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads both Biden and Sanders in Florida, though Biden runs it closer. In 2016, Trump carried the Sunshine State by a narrow 1.2 points. In the last six presidential elections, Republicans have carried Florida three times and Democrats have carried it three times.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
(Reuters) Biden over Sanders: +21 (54-33)
(The Economist) Biden over Sanders: +15 (53-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Ten days ago, Sanders had a 12-point lead over Biden among Democratic primary voters nationwide. Now, Biden has margins ranging from 15% to 21%.
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Biden over Sanders: +36 (61-25)
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Florida is a lost cause for Sanders. Biden maintains a wide lead in the state. The primary is March 17 for 219 delegates.
ALABAMA: SENATE PRIMARY
Among Republican primary voters statewide
Tommy Tuberville over Jeff Sessions: +12 (52-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Sessions is now the underdog in his Senate comeback bid. Former Auburn coach Tuberville posts a solid runoff lead over the former senator and Trump AG. This poll also finds that 45% of Republican primary voters believe President Trump opposes Sessions’ election, while 16% disagree. Trump has, since this poll was taken, endorsed Tuberville.... Tuberville led Sessions in the first primary by almost 2 points…. The runoff is March 31…. The GOP winner will face Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in November.
Among voters statewide
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +7 (49-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Kelly, who has raised more than $20 million, has led every poll since August. McSally has raised $12 million…. The survey finds that 47% of Arizona voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 50% disapprove. And,46% approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus situation, while 54% disapprove.
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the [Republicans in Congress/Democrats in Congress] are handling their job?
% = Approve/Disapprove
Republicans in Congress: 40%/56%
Democrats in Congress: 35%/62%
RON’S COMMENT: This is interesting––Republicans in Congress now rate better than Democrats in Congress by 5 points (40% vs. 35%). Over the past four months, approval of Republicans went up 6 points and approval of Democrats went down 3 points. Did impeachment hurt Democrats? Looks like it.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Reuters/Ipsos, March. 6-9; The Economist/YouGov, March 8-10
FLORIDA: FAU, March. 5-7
ALABAMA: Cygnal, March 6-8
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, March 3-4
CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL: Gallup, Feb. 17-28