Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 4, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Rasmussen) to 47% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (up 2 from Thursday), putting him 7 points net negative.
VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters statewide
Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +4 (48-44)
RON’S COMMENT: The race remains competitive with former governor McAuliffe holding a modest lead. The average of the four most recent polls show McAuliffe ahead by 5 points…. This poll finds that:
- 50% of Youngkin's supporters and 47% of McAuliffe's supporters are “extremely” interested in the election.
- The top two issues are the economy and the pandemic.
- McAuliffe’s rating is 48% favorable/41% unfavorable.
- Youngkin’s rating is 44% favorable/42% unfavorable.
- Biden’s rating in Virginia is 49% favorable/49% unfavorable. (Biden carried the state by 10 points in 2020; this rating indicates deterioration of his political standing.)
- Trump’s rating in Virginia is 41% favorable/57% unfavorable. (Trump is the GOP’s heaviest baggage to carry in a Virginia general election.)
ARIZONA: SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Mark Brnovich (R): +4 (43-39)
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Michael McGuire (R): +7 (44-37)
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Jim Lamon (R): +7 (43-36)
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Blake Masters (R): +9 (44-35)
RON’S COMMENT: CORRECTION: A previous edition had the margins correct in all four trial heats, but the % for each candidate was not correct. Please use these numbers. Sorry for the confusion.... Democratic incumbent Kelly leads possible Republican challengers, although the trial heat against Brnovich is close. In May, this poll had Kelly beating Brnovich by 10 points, not it’s down to 4 points…. In 2020, Kelly won the special election by 2.4 points….Brnovich is state AG and the GOP primary frontrunner; McGuire is a retired major general; Masters is COO of Thiel Capital; and Lamon is in the solar power business…. It should be noted that this data is three weeks old.
In the Arizona Republican Senate primary match-up:
- Brnovich leads with 27%, McGuire is second with 14% and the rest are in single digits, according to the OH Predictive Insights poll.
- An OnMessage (R) poll, taken about the same time, has Brnovich leading by an even bigger margin, showing him with 41%, and the others in single digits.
Among voters statewide
- (Mellman-D) Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +5 (46-41)
- (WPA Intel.-R) Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +2 (39-37)
RON’S COMMENT: Two polls, one by a Democratic pollster showing the Democratic incumbent modestly ahead and one by a Republican pollster showing the Republican challenger slightly in front…. In any case, this will be a well-watched Senate contest…. Democratic incumbent Cortez Masto was elected in 2016. Republican Laxalt is a former state AG, the son of former Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) and the grandson of former Nevada governor and senator Paul Laxalt, a Reagan buddy…. Handicappers rate the race “lean Democratic” or “battleground.”
- Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) over Dean Heller (R): +3 (46-43)
- Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) over Joe Lombardo (R): +1 (45-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Sisolak clearly has a re-election battle on his hands, with both Heller, a former GOP senator, and Lombardo, the Clark County sheriff, running him close. The poll was conducted for the Nevada Independent by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who says about the two statewide elections: “Each race has its own individual dynamics, individual candidates, individual faux paus people make…. But what we see so far, as we said at the outset, are a set of what are likely to be very close, very competitive, very tough races.”
SECEDING FROM THE UNION, BATTLING THE OPPOSITION
Among voters nationwide
Agree/disagree polling questions:
The situation in America is such that I would favor [Red] [Blue] states seceding from the union to form their own separate country.
- 41% of Biden voters agree
- 52% of Trump voters agree
I have come to view elected officials from the [opposite party] as presenting a clear and present danger to American democracy.
- 80% of Biden voters agree
- 84% of Trump voters agree
I have come to view elected officials from the [opposite party] as presenting a clear and present danger to the American way of life.
- 75% of Biden voters agree
- 78% of Trump voters agree
Our country needs a powerful leader in order to destroy the radical and immoral currents prevailing in society today.
- 62% of Biden voters agree
- 82% of Trump voters agree
RON’S COMMENT: This data is from a poll sponsored by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia/Project Home Fire.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Fox News, Sept. 26-29
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, Sept. 7-12
NEVADA: Mellman Group (D), Sept. 15-22; WPA Intelligence (R), Sept. 11-15
SECEDING FROM UNION, BATTLING THE OPPOSITION: Center for Politics at the University of Virginia/Project Home Fire, July 22-Aug 1.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron