Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, March 13, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Quinnipiac) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters statewide
Trump over Biden: +3 (48-45)
Trump over Sanders: +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows both Democratic candidates with narrow leads in critical Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump trailed in the polls for a long time, but ultimately carried Wisconsin by seven-tenths of a point. In the last eight presidential elections, Democrats won Wisconsin seven times.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Biden over Sanders: +24 (59-35)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden has built up a wide lead over Sanders nationally. Internals:
- Biden leads Sanders by 39 points among blacks.
- Biden leads by 30 points among suburban voters.
- Biden leads by 26 points among rural whites
- Biden leads by 26 points among white voters with a college degree.
- Democratic voters trust Biden more than Sanders on crisis leadership, 55-30.
Among Democratic primary voters in each state
Biden over Sanders: +38 (65-27)
RON’S COMMENT: More data showing a Biden blowout in Florida. The primary is Tuesday.
Biden over Sanders: +21 (57-36)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the first recent Illinois poll we’ve seen and it shows Biden far ahead. The primary is Tuesday with 155 delegates at stake.
Biden over Sanders: +22 (57-35)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the first recent Ohio poll we’ve seen and it shows Biden with a big lead. The primary is Tuesday with 136 delegates at stake. If Biden wins Florida, Ohio and Illinois by healthy margins, as these polls suggest, there isn’t much room left for Sanders to recover.
RATINGS: FORMER DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
Among voters nationwide
Among general election voters:
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Elizabeth Warren: 41%/51%
Pete Buttigieg: 39%/47%
Amy Klobuchar: 36%/45%
Mike Bloomberg: 27%/65%
Among Democratic primary voters:
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Elizabeth Warren: 72%/23%
Pete Buttigieg: 65%/26%
Amy Klobuchar: 58%/27%
Mike Bloomberg: 42%/52%
RON’S COMMENT: Among general election voters, the four Democratic candidate dropouts rate net negative. Warren has the highest positive and Bloomberg has the highest negative…. Among Democratic primary voters, Warren has the best ratings, Buttigieg is second, Klobuchar third and Bloomberg fourth…. It should be noted that Warren had very good ratings even when she was in the race losing primaries.... Only Bloomberg is net negative among both general election and Democratic voters. Amazing how little his gigantic TV and online ad campaign did for his personal ratings.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, March 11
WISCONSIN: PPP(D), March 10-11
FLORIDA, ILLINOIS, OHIO: Emerson College, March 11-12
FORMER DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES: The Economist/YouGov, March 8-10