Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 7, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 43% (Economist) to 46% (The Hill). The third poll has it at 44%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(CNBC) Biden +10 (52-42)
(Economist) Biden +9 (51-42)
(SurveyUSA) Biden +10 (53-43)
(Boston Herald) Biden +14 (51-37)
Today’s average: Biden +10.8
Average of last six polls: Biden +11.2
RON’S COMMENT: Based on today’s reports, Biden is building up a substantial lead. Internal data:
- 60% of the interviews for the SurveyUSA poll were conducted before Trump was diagnosed with the virus, and Biden won those voters 51-43. Among voters interviewed after Trump was diagnosed and hospitalized, Biden beat Trump 56-40.
- Battle of suburbia: The SurveyUSA poll finds that suburban men favor Biden by 7 points and suburban women favor him wins by 21 points.
- Gender, race: In the Economist poll, Biden wins men by 5 points and women by 13 points. Trump wins Whites by 7 points, but Biden wins Blacks 87-8 and Hispanics 57-24.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
MICHIGAN (Reuters): Biden +8
MICHIGAN (CNBC): Biden +8
PENNSYLVANIA (CNBC): Biden +4
PENNSYLVANIA (Monmouth): Biden +11
PENNSYLVANIA (Emerson): Biden +5
WISCONSIN (CNBC): Biden +7
FLORIDA (CNBC): Biden +4
ARIZONA (CNBC): Biden +6
NORTH CAROLINA (CNBC): Biden +2
NORTH CAROLINA (Reuters): Even
NORTH CAROLINA (ECU): Biden +4
States Clinton carried in 2016
MAINE (Bangor Daily News): Biden +11
NEW MEXICO (PPP-D): Biden +14
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to lead Trump’s 2016 Triple Crown––Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All the recent polling from these three states puts Biden ahead…. Biden’s average lead in Arizona is 6 points, based on the last three polls…. While Biden leads Maine statewide, Trump carries the 2nd CD by 8 points, which could give him one out of the state’s four electoral votes…. Republicans had hoped they could put New Mexico in play, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening.
- Keep in mind: If Biden wins all 20 of Hillary Clinton’s states from 2016 plus DC, and picks up Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he will win the election with 278 electoral votes. That’s why these “Triple Crown states” are so important; if Biden wins all three of them, as polls now show he may, then he does not need to win any of the other battleground states, such as Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio or Iowa to reach the required 270-electoral vote majority.
Among voters in each state
(ECU) Sen. Thom Tillis (R) over Cal Cunningham (D): +1 (46-45)
(CNBC) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +4 (50-46)
COMMENT: Yesterday’s poll by PPP (D) showed Democrat Cunningham with a 6-point lead. In today's polls, one has GOP incumbent Tillis slightly ahead and one had Cunningham with a modest lead. The most recent poll is the PPP survey (Oct. 4-5). The ECU and CNBC polls were taken Oct. 2-4 .... Cunningham is now dealing with a sexting scandal that some Democrats fear may cost them this seat, although these polls indicate that he's still in contention and maybe even leading…. Handicappers rate the race tossup or tilt Democratic.
MAINE (Bangor Daily News)
Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +1 (44-43)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the smallest Gideon lead we’ve seen since February. The previous three polls gave her an average lead of 4.7 points. Handicappers rate the race a tossup or tilt/lean Democratic.
(Reuters) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +7 (50-43)
(Detroit News) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +5 (45-40)
(CNBC) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +8 (51-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Peters maintains a lead. While GOP challenger James has been charging hard, he still hasn’t broken through…. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.
CORRECTION: Yesterday we incorrectly labeled both candidates in the Alabama Senate race as Democrats. Tommy Tuberville is a Republican.
Among likely voters who watched the debate or saw clips
Who do you think won Tuesday’s presidential debate?
Joe Biden: 44%
Donald Trump: 30%
A tie: 10%
Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Biden’s voters and 67% of Trump’s voters thought their candidate won the debate. Most voters found the debate “annoying.” This poll also finds that:
- 33% of voters think the next presidential debate should happen in-person as scheduled, 44% want it to be done remotely and 23% want it to be cancelled.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: CNBC/Change (D), Oct. 2-4; The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 4-6; Cheddar/SurveyUSA, Oct. 1-4; Boston Herald/FPU, Sept. 30-Oct. 4
STATE POLLS: POLLSTERS INDICATED ALONG WITH RESULTS; MOST INTERVIEWING DONE WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, OR OTHERWISE NOTED.
LAST DEBATE: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 4-6
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron