Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, January 15, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 37% (CNN) to 44% (The Economist). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 14 points higher than his approval rating.
STATE OF THE NATION
Among adults nationwide
Excerpts from IBD/TIPP poll report:
- 41% say they are satisfied with the direction of the country, compared with 58% who are dissatisfied. That's down from last month, when 44% said they were satisfied, and 55% said they weren't.
- 26% are satisfied with country when it comes to morals and ethics; 71% are dissatisfied.
- 40% of the public think Trump is providing strong leadership for the country (up two points from last month), compared with 48% who say it's weak (unchanged from a month ago). Eleven percent fall in the middle camp.
- 44% give Trump top marks for his handling of the economy.
- 51% say the economy is improving, down two points from last month. Forty-four percent say it's not improving, which is up three points from December.
Among voters nationwide
Do you currently feel optimistic or pessimistic about [the American political system]?
Don’t know: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Democrats, 57% of Republicans and 77% of independents are pessimistic about the political system.
LEAVING THE U.S.
Among Americans nationwide 15+ years old
Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move PERMANENTLY to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?
Yes, would like to leave: 16%
Would not like to leave: 84%
RON’S COMMENT: While 16% of all Americans surveyed would like to leave the country, 30% of those younger than 30 would like to do so. Also, 40% of women younger than 30 would like to move permanently. That compares to 20% among men under 30. The pollster found that these “gender gaps narrow with age and eventually disappear after age 50.”…. Analysis of the findings reveal the role President Trump plays in the professed desire to leave the country: 22% of Americans who disapprove of Trump’s job performance say they would like to leave, compared to 7% who approve of his job performance…. According to Gallup, the average percentage of Americans who wanted to leave the U.S. was 11% during Bush 43's presidency and 10% during the Obama presidency.... In the survey, 26% of those who want to leave the U.S. picked Canada as their preferred destination, which was up from 12% in 2016…. When reading these numbers, the pollster cautions: “It's important to note that people's desire to migrate is typically much higher than their intention to do so -- as such, it is unlikely that Americans will be flocking to the Canadian border. In fact, since Trump's election, Canadian statistics show only a modest uptick in the number of Americans who have moved to Canada.”
NEW YORK RATINGS
Among voters statewide
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D)
51% favorable/43% unfavorable
48% favorable/32% unfavorable
49% favorable/38% unfavorable
In what year did the first U.S. government agency shutdown occur that involved furloughs and a budget dispute?
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
POLITICAL SYSTEM: Ipsos/NPR, JAN. 9-10
STATE OF THE NATION: IBD/TIPP, Jan. 3-12
LEAVING THE U.S.: Gallup, 2018
NEW YORK: Siena College, Jan. 6-10
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
1980. On May 1, 1980, during the Carter administration, the FTC shut down for one day when Congress failed to approve funding for the agency. U.S. Marshalls were sent to enforce the shutdown and 1,600 public employees were furloughed.