Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, May 5, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Emerson) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from Thursday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
SPONSORED MESSAGE FROM SMA, INC.
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Among general voters nationwide
(CBS) Biden over Trump: +6 (49-43)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden over Trump: even (43-43)
RON’S COMMENT: The CBS poll finds Biden with a clear lead, while the IBD-TIPP poll shows an even contest…. The five most recent national polls give Biden an average lead of 5.6 points…. Observations:
- In neither poll does Trump break 43%, which is slightly below his average job rating of 44%.
- In the CBS poll, Biden wins Democrats 90-3, blacks 90-3 and Hispanics 62-27. Trump wins independents 43-41, Republicans 94-3 and whites 52-40.
Trump over Biden: +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Trump edging Biden by a small margin in a state that Trump won in 2016 by nearly 10 points. In the last four presidential elections, the state voted Democratic twice and Republican twice. This is a "must win" for Trump.
Biden over Trump: +6 (49-43)
RON’S COMMENT: This isn’t good news for Trump––Pennsylvania is one of the big blue states he was able to crack in 2016, albeit by a slim seven-tenths of a point margin. In the last seven presidential elections, Democrats won Pennsylvania six times…. The average of the three most recent polls gives Biden a 6.7-point advantage.
Biden over Trump: +8 (50-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Though a small state with only 4 electoral votes, it’s well worth watching. Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire by a mere four-tenths of a point. Democrats won it in four of the last five presidential elections.
Biden over Trump: +7 (47-40)
RON’S COMMENT: If this poll is accurate, it’s very good news for Biden. Trump won North Carolina in 2016 by nearly 4 points. Republicans have won the state in nine of the last ten presidential elections. This is a "must win" for Trump.
Trump and Biden: even (43-43-5)
RON’S COMMENT: It appears Trump is being hurt in this gigantic red state by his handling of the coronavirus––43% of voters approve of his handling of the outbreak and 44% disapprove…. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016. Republicans carried the Lone Star state in all ten of the last ten presidential elections. This is a "must win" for Trump.
BIDEN’S VP PICK
Among Democratic voters nationwide
What Democrats say about a VP pick (from CBS poll):
- 31% of Democrats say a “liberal/progressive” running mate would make it easier to beat Trump and 32% say it would make it harder.
- 42% of Democrats say a “moderate” running mate would make it easier to beat Trump and 16% say it would make it harder.
- 57% of Democrats say crisis management experience, 49% say economic expertise, 39% say national security experience and 37% say legislative experience is “very important” in a running mate for Biden.
- 82% of Democrats say picking someone who is ready to be president is a “high priority.”
- 64% of all Democrats and 70% of black Democrats say Biden should pick Michelle Obama if she wanted to run.
- 29% of black Democrats say picking an African American running mate would make it easier to beat Trump and 29% say it would make it harder to beat Trump.
- 72% of black Democrats say Biden should consider Elizabeth Warren and 20% say he should not.
- 61% of black Democrats say Biden should consider Stacey Abrams and 18% say he should not.
- 60% of black Democrats say Biden should consider Kamala Harris and 26% say he should not.
- 41% of black Democrats say Biden should consider Susan Rice and 24% say he should not.
RATING THE ECONOMY
Among voters nationwide
How would you rate the condition of the national economy today?
Very good: 4%
Fairly good: 16%
Fairly bad: 37%
Very bad: 34%
RON’S COMMENT: 85% of Democrats, 73% of independents and 59% of Republicans say the economy is fairly or very bad.
Among U.S. adults nationwide
How effective do you believe face masks are in limiting the spread of COVID-19?
Extremely/very effective: 31%
Somewhat effective: 51%
Not very/not effective: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: 82% of Americans believe face masks are at least somewhat effective. That includes 91% of Democrats, 78% of Republicans and 77% of independents.
RATINGS: WORLD LEADERS
Among voters in each country
% = Approve/Disapprove
Andrew Lopez Obrador (Mexico): 65%/28%
Scott Morrison (Australia): 64%/29%
Justin Trudeau (Canada): 61%/34%
Boris Johnson (UK): 60%/32%
Angela Merkel (Germany): 58%/34%
Donald Trump (US): 44%/50%
Emmanuel Macron (France): 34%/59%
Shinzo Abe (Japan): 27%/64%
RON’S COMMENT: Here is an update on each leader’s approval rating in his or her country.
The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe in recent history. It is estimated that about one-third of the world’s population were infected with the virus. At the time of its spread (1918-1919), Woodrow Wilson was president of the U.S. Who was vice president at that time?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CBS/YouGov, April 28-May 1; IBD/TIPP, April 26-29
BIDEN’S VP PICK, ECONOMY: CBS/YouGov, April 28-May 1
PENNSYLVANIA: Harper (R), April 21-26
IOWA: PPP (D), April 30-May 1
TEXAS: Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler, April 18-27
NORTH CAROLINA: Meredith College, April 27-28
FACE MASKS: The Economist/YouGov, April 26-28
RATINGS: WORLD LEADERS: Morning Consult, April 21 report
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
Thomas Riley Marshall. He was Woodrow Wilson’s vice president, 1913-1921. Before that, he served as governor of Indiana. He is perhaps best remembered for his quip, “What this country needs is a really good five-cent cigar.” Wilson was not a fan of his humor.