Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 8, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll for The Hill shows Biden with a clear lead and Warren and Sanders fighting for second spot. Since their poll two weeks ago, Biden slipped 1 point and Warren dropped 4 points. The next inflection point will be the Nov. 20 debate.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 47% (-1 since last week)
Trump: 41% (same as last week)
It depends: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 6 points, last week it was 7 points.
SOUTH CAROLINA: SENATE 2020
Among voters statewide
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) over Jaime Harrison (D): +23 (53-30)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Graham’s job rating is 50% approve/36% disapprove in this poll. Harrison, an African American Democrat, is a 43-year old former state party chair and a Yale/Georgetown grad. Most Democratic presidential candidates have endorsed him for the nomination to take on Graham. The poll was taken for a pro-Graham PAC.
Among voters nationwide
Which of the following comes closest to your opinion?
President Trump should be impeached: 47%
President Trump should NOT be impeached: 41%
RON'S COMMENT: Another poll showing more support for impeachment than opposition, but with support falling below 50%. By party: 77% of Democrats think Trump should be impeached while 80% of Republicans think he should not be impeached.
TRUMP AND THE ECONOMY
Among adults nationwide
Which of the following do you consider the best measure of how Donald Trump is handling the national economy?
The stock market index: 10%
The unemployment rate and jobs report: 30%
The prices of goods and services you buy: 21%
Your personal finances: 12%
Don't know: 26%
RON'S COMMENT: Few are looking at the stock market as the best measurement of Trump's performance on the economy. The unemployment rate and the jobs report is more widely evaluated, but there are differences by partisanship: 47% of Republicans say they measure Trump based on the unemployment rate/jobs report, compared to 20% of Democrats and 27% of independents. Democrats are more likely to say they measure Trump based on the price of goods and services they buy, with 28% giving that response. You can almost hear the talking points on low unemployment versus high tariffs in the crosstabs.
Do you think improving the economy is...
Something the president can do a lot about: 52%
Something the president can do a little about: 32%
Something that is mostly beyond the president's control: 16%
RON'S COMMENT: Bi-partisan agreement, but perhaps with different motivations: 57% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans believe the president can do a lot about improving the economy. There are differences by age: 41% of 18 to 29 year old's, 50% of 30 to 44 year old's, 56% of 45 to 64 year old's and 60% of those 65 and up believe the president can do a lot about improving the economy.
PARTY TRUST ON ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?
% = Democrats in Congress / Republicans in Congress
National security: 35% / 43% (R +8)
The economy: 36% / 43% (R +7)
Jobs: 36% / 42% (R +6)
Gun policy: 38% / 39% (R +1)
Immigration: 41% / 39% (D +2)
Energy: 43% / 33% (D +10)
Protecting Medicare/Social Security: 45%/ 32% (D +13)
Health care: 46% / 33% (D +13)
Education: 45% / 31% (D +14)
Sexual harassment/workplace misconduct: 44% / 25% (D +19)
Environment: 49% / 26% (D +23)
RON'S COMMENT: While responses to questions like these are largely driven by partisan preferences (isn’t everything these days?), responses can show where less partisan voters and independents land on key issues. Democrats hold an advantage on health care, the environment, energy, education, sexual harassment and protecting Medicare and Social Security. Republicans maintain an advantage on the economy, jobs and national security. Opinions are closely divided on immigration and gun policy.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Hill/HarrisX
SOUTH CAROLINA: Benchmark for Security in Strength PAC (R), October 15-21
IMPEACHMENT: Ipsos/Reuters, Nov. 4-5
ELECTABILITY: Monmouth, Oct. 30-Nov. 1
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, ECONOMY, TRUST ON ISSUES: Economist/YouGov, November 3-5
TRUST ON ISSUES: Politico/Morning Consult, Nov. 1-3