Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 28, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters nationwide
Among general election voters nationwide:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (54-46)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Elizabeth Warren (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (50-50)
Kamala Harris (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (50-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +2 (51-49)
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +16 (54-38)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +14 (53-39)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +12 (52-40)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +11 (51-40)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: The Emerson College poll shows two Democrats leading Trump, two even with him and one with Trump slightly ahead. On the other hand, the Quinnipiac poll has Democrats running far ahead of Trump, to the point that some Democratic operatives find these numbers hard to believe. In the past, Quinnipiac’s polls have often shown Democrats doing better than has other polling. The Emerson polling is also a little confounding since they do not include undecided percentages.
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide:
% = Emerson/The Hill/USA Today/Quinnipiac = Average
Joe Biden: 31%/30%/32%/32% = 31.3
Bernie Sanders: 24%/17%/12%/15% = 17
Elizabeth Warren: 15%/14%/14%/19% = 15.5
Kamala Harris: 10%/4%/6%/7% = 6.8
Pete Buttigieg: 3%/4%/6%/5% = 4.5
Andrew Yang: 4%/2%/3%/3% = 3
Beto O’Rourke: 2%/3%/2%/1% = 2
Cory Booker: 3%/2%/2%/1% = 2
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%/1%/-/1% = 1.3
Candidates with 1% or less in all polls not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden remains on top in today’s four polls. Sanders and Warren are vying for second place…. Sanders’ numbers bounce around a lot, from 12% to 24%. Warren is second in two polls and third in two. The latest Monmouth poll that had Biden in third place at 19% is this week's outlier so far.
- The Emerson College poll shows that Biden and Sanders have the most loyal supporters, with 63% and 62% saying they will stick with their candidate. Also, 45% of Warren voters and 39% of Harris voters say they will remain with their candidates.
- The Hill/HarrisX poll finds that Biden’s best demographic is men 65+ years old (55%).
- In the USA Today/Suffolk poll, Warren topped second choice votes with 17%, Buttigieg was second at 12% and Sanders and Biden tied at 11%. Also, seven of the candidates did not receive a single vote: Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Bullock, de Blasio, Delaney, Sestak and Messam. Candidates with a vote or two, but less than 1%, were Bennet, Williamson, Gabbard and Steyer.
- In the Quinnipiac poll, Warren wins the most liberal Democrats with 34% (compared to Sanders at 22%). Biden easily wins the most moderate with 41%.
JEWISH VOTERS IN THE U.S.
By Frank Newport, Gallup
Excerpts from Frank Newport’s analysis:
- Gallup's ongoing estimates show that about 2% of American adults (those aged 18 and older) identify their religion as Jewish. To be specific, an aggregate of Gallup surveys conducted in 2018 shows 1.9% Jewish identification, and over 18,000 Gallup interviews conducted so far this year show that 2.0% of the population identifies as Jewish.
- A 2013 Pew Research Center analysis of Jewish identification showed that in addition to the 1.8% of U.S. adults who identified their religion as Jewish (very similar to Gallup's estimate), another small percentage of Americans who did not initially say their religion was Jewish identified their secular heritage as Jewish. According to this research, at maximum 2.2% of the U.S. adult population has some basis for Jewish self-identification.
- Looking at the religious makeup of adults aged 18 and older in the 50 states, the highest Jewish representation is in New York, at 8%, followed by four other states -- New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maryland -- where it is between 6% and 4%. (These estimates are based on Gallup's interviews with over 130,000 adults in 2017.) At the other end of the spectrum, Jews are less than one-half of 1% of the adult population in 11 states: Iowa, Nebraska, Mississippi, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Arkansas, West Virginia and North Dakota.
- The clear majority of Jewish Americans identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, and we find no evidence that this has changed significantly during the Trump administration so far.
- Trump took office in January 2017, and Gallup's aggregated surveys conducted from February through December of that year show that 68% of Jews identified as Democratic or as independents who leaned toward the Democratic Party, while 28% identified as or leaned Republican.
- In 2018, those numbers were 59% Democratic and 36% Republican. So far this year, using an aggregated sample of Gallup polls conducted from January through August, 65% of Jews identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, with 30% identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party.
- In terms of ideology, 44% of American Jews are liberal, much higher than the overall 25% among the total population, making Jews the most liberal of any major religious group we identify. Another 36% of Jews are moderates, with 20% describing themselves as conservative -- compared with 37% of the total population.
For the full report American Jews, Politics and Israel, click here
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Emerson College Aug. 24-26, The Hill/HarrisX Aug. 23-24, USA Today/Suffolk Aug. 20-25, Quinnipiac Aug. 21-26