Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 25, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Among NH Democratic primary voters
Bernie Sanders: 27%
Joe Biden: 25%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Cory Booker: 5%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Pete Buttigieg: 1%
Sherrod Brown: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Unlike other New Hampshire polling we’ve recently seen, this one shows Sanders (a New Hampshire neighbor) edging out Biden for first place. It also shows Harris in third place and Warren (also a New Hampshire neighbor) in fourth position. Interestingly, this survey indicates that Klobuchar is now breathing down Warren’s neck…. Sanders does best with young voters, capturing 44% of 18-34 year-olds, compared to 11% for Biden, 9% for Warren, 8% for Harris and 8% for O’Rourke.... In 2016, Sanders won the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote.
Among NH Republican primary voters
Donald Trump over Bill Weld: +64 (82-18)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that GOP voters in New Hampshire would pick Trump by a gigantic lead over Weld, the former Massachusetts governor and 2016 Libertarian VP nominee.
General election among all NH voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Bernie Sanders (I-D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
RON’S COMMENT: All five of these Democrats are beating Trump in New Hampshire, a state that Trump lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a mere four-tenths of a point. Biden and Sanders do best.
Three-way general election in NH:
Sanders (I-D) 48% over Trump (R) 42% and Schultz (Ind) 10%
Trump (R) 45% over Warren (D) 44% and Schultz (Ind) 12%
RON’S COMMENT: When independent Howard Schultz is in the race, Sanders’ vote declines 7 points and Trump’s vote drops 3 points…. With Schultz in, Warren’s vote drops 8 points and Trump’s vote declines 3 points.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: SENATE
Among voters statewide
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Chris Sununu (R): even (44-44)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Democratic incumbent Shaheen tied with Sununu, the state’s current GOP governor. Shaheen leads Sununu among independents 44-39…. Shaheen was first elected to the Senate in 2008 and was re-elected in 2014 by a 3-point margin…. Sununu won the governorship in 2016 by 2 points and was re-elected last year by 7 points. Though he said he wouldn’t run for the Senate in 2020, top GOP leaders are trying to get him in the race.
Among voters nationwide
How serious of a problem do you think sexual harassment is in the United States?
Very serious: 31%
Somewhat serious: 45%
Not very/not serious: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that sexual harassment is viewed by more than three-fourths of the electorate as a “somewhat” or “very” serious problem. Looking at intensity, 46% of Democrats, 25% of independents, 19% of Republicans, 24% of men and 35% of women say the problem is “very” serious.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Emerson College, Feb. 21-22
SEXUAL HARASSMENT: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 17-19
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
I-D = Independent, but caucuses with Democrats
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.