Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 1, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters, Trafalgar-R) to 45% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (up 1 from yesterday), putting him at 14 points net negative.
Among voters statewide
- Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (46-46) WSJ
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +10 (48-38) Emerson
- RON’S COMMENT: Biden beat Trump in New Mexico in the last election by 10 points.
- Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +8 (47-39) Emerson
- RON’S COMMENT: Biden beat Trump in Colorado in the last election by almost 14 points.
- Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +16 (53-37) Emerson
- RON’S COMMENT: Trump beat Biden in Missouri in the last election by 15 points.
Among voters statewide
BATTLEGROUND STATE AVERAGES:
- NEVADA––Laxalt (R) over Cortez Masto (D): +0.4
- GEORGIA––Walker (R) over Warnock (D): +1
- PENNSYLVANIA––Oz (R) over Fetterman (D): +0.5
- WISCONSIN––Johnson (R) over Barnes (D): +4
- OHIO––Vance (R) over Ryan (D): +2
- NORTH CAROLINA––Budd (R) over Beasley (D): +4
- NEW HAMPSHIRE––Hassan (D) over Bolduc (R): +1.3
- ARIZONA––Kelly (D) over Masters (R): +2.6
- WASHINGTON––Murray (D) over Smiley (R): +3.5
RON’S COMMENT: Based on our polling averages, Republicans are still ahead in six of the nine battleground states (above). If the GOP ultimately wins these six races, they would have a gain of two Senate seats (Georgia and Nevada). That would be enough to give them a 52-seat Senate majority.... Poll averages also show the parties that now hold seats in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Washington, Arizona and Ohio are ahead in the current polls, which means no party pick-ups either way in these seven states––at least not for now.... Keep in mind: Most of these averages are based on small margins that could easily shift in the days ahead.
- Cortez Masto (D) leads new Nevada poll, but Laxalt (R) edges the average.
- Major polling conflicts in Utah and Oklahoma.
- Grassley (R) maintains a clear lead in Iowa. But note that two of the three most recent polls were conducted by Republican-oriented firms.
- Barnes (D) poll has him ahead in Wisconsin, which is contrary to other recent polling. Incumbent Johnson (R) still leads average.
- Alabama’s a done deal.
- Bennet (D) leading in Colorado.
- Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +2 (43-41) OH Predictive
- Average of recent polls: R +0.4
- Sen. Mike Lee (R) over Even McMullin (I): +10 (50-40) Emerson
- Sen. Mike Lee (R) over Even McMullin (I): +1 (47-46) Hill Research
- Average: R +5.5
- Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) over Michael Franken (D): +11 (54-43) Cygnal-R
- Average of recent polls: R +10
- Sen. Michael Bennet (D) over Joe O'Dea (R): +8 (51-43) Emerson
- Mandela Barnes (D) over Sen. Ron Johnson (R): +2 (48-46) Clarity Campaigns-D
- Average of recent polls: R +4
OKLAHOMA (special election)
- Markwayne Mullin (R) over Kendra Horn (D): +6 (47-41) Ascend Action
- Markwayne Mullin (R) over Kendra Horn (D): +23 (59-36) Emerson
- Average: R +14.5
- Katie Britt (R) over Will Boyd (D): +29 (57-28) Cygnal-R
Among voters statewide
- Poll conflict in Michigan: One has Whitmer (D) strengthening her lead and the other has her lead collapsing.... What to believe?
- GOP polls show a tie or near tie in New York, but average still has Hochul (D) ahead.
- Republican challenger in New Mexico is making it a race, but still behind.
- New poll has incumbent Sisolak (D) beating challenger Lombardo (R) in Nevada; a ray of good news for Democrats. But is it an outlier?
- Poll conflict in Oklahoma; one has incumbent Stitt (R) well ahead, the other has him behind.
- GOP poll shows Ivey landslide in Alabama.
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Lee Zeldin (R): even (48-48) Trafalgar-R
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +1 (46-45) KA Consulting-R
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +6 (48-42) Slingshot-D
- Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) over Lee Zeldin (R): +11 (54-43) Civiqs
- Average of recent polls: D +4.5
- Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +2 (50-48) Emerson
- Average of recent polls: D +5.6
- Gov. Kay Ivey (R) over Yolanda Flowers (D): +35 (60-25) Cygnal-R
- Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) over Joe Lombardo (R): +4 (45-41) OH Predictive
- Average of recent polls: R +1.8
- Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +7 (51-44) Atlanta J-C
- Average of recent polls: R +8.7
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tudor Dixon (R): +9 (52-43) Glengariff
- Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Tudor Dixon (R): even (45-45) InsiderAdvantage
- Average of recent polls: D +5.3
- Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) over Joy Hofmeister (D): +9 (52-43) Emerson
- Joy Hofmeister (D) over Gov. Kevin Stitt (R): +3 (48-45) Ascend Action
- Average: R +3
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron