Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, February 20, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls. The range is 42% (Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 7 points higher than his approval.
PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 30%
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Kamala Harris: 11%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 7%
Cory Booker: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Sherrod Brown: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Terry McAuliffe: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden runs first and Sanders runs second in this nationwide poll of Democrats. This survey was taken before Sanders’ announcement…. Compared to a week ago, this poll shows Biden has gone up 1 point, Sanders has gone down 1, Harris has gone down 2 and Klobuchar has gone up 1…. In addition to the above national numbers, in a subsample of only Democratic voters in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, Biden leads with 33%, Sanders is second with 22% and Warren is third with 11%.
Trial heat with Michelle Obama (among Democrats):
Joe Biden: 25%
Michelle Obama: 25%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Bernie Sanders: 11%
Beto O’Rourke: 6%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Michael Bloomberg: 5%
Others: not reported
RON’S COMMENT: In this trial heat, Michelle Obama ties Biden for first place. Of course, Obama says she’s not running.
PRESIDENT: NORTH CAROLINA
Among voters statewide
Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +4 (43-39)
Donald Trump (R) over Cory Booker (D): +8 (44-36)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +11 (45-34)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +12 (46-34)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is good news for Trump. It shows him doing better against three 2020 Democratic contenders in North Carolina than he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016, when he beat her in the state by nearly 4 points…. The trial heat against Biden is closer, however, with Trump ahead by the same margin that he won with in the last election. Biden wins Democrats in the state 75-8 and Trump wins Republicans 90-3. Independents side with Trump 40-31. Trump is polling only 4% of the black vote and Biden draws only 28% of the white vote. It should be noted that 7% of Democrats and 14% of independents volunteered another candidate in the Trump-Biden trial heat…. North Carolina is now considered a swing state in presidential elections. Obama carried it in 2008 and Romney won it by only 2 points in 2012. It has 15 Electoral votes, which is a nice haul.
NATIONAL EMERGENCY DECLARATION
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump’s decision to declare a national emergency to build a wall on the southern border?
RON’S COMMENT: Trump holds most of his 2016 election base (46%) on this issue.
Among voters statewide
Gov. Larry Hogan job rating
RON’S COMMENT: Maryland’s GOP governor Hogan maintains strong popularity in this blue state. Voters like him so much they don’t want him to take time out to run for president. While 33% would like to see him run, 55% wouldn’t. There has been some buzz about Hogan challenging Trump in the Republican primaries.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, Feb. 11-17
TRIAL HEAT WITH MICHELLE OBAMA: HarrisX, Feb. 17-18
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas (R), Feb. 11-13
NATIONAL EMERGENCY DECLARATION: Emerson College, Feb. 14-16
MARYLAND: Goucher, Feb. 7-12