Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, June 14, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters, Morning Consult) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating…. Trump’s approval rating among demographic groups (based on Hill-Harris X data):
- Men 48%, women 42%
- 18-34 year-olds 39%, 65 and older 46%
- Whites 51%, blacks 21% and Hispanics 35%
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 46% (same as last week)
Trump: 41% (same as last week)
It depends: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 5 points last week and 5 points in the latest poll. Trump wins men by 7 points and whites by 10 points. He loses women by 12 points, blacks by 50 points and Hispanics by 30 points.
CALIFORNIA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Kamala Harris: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Bad news for Harris, running fourth in her home state. Good news for Warren, running second in the nation’s biggest state. But, Harris runs first in second choice votes which could help her down the line. Warren is second…. Keep in mind that California will have more delegates by far than any other state at the Democratic national convention.... Warren leads the progressive left wing of California’s Democratic primary voters, getting 32%. Sanders is second at 21%. Biden wins moderates. Warren and Biden lead women, each getting 21%. Biden and Sanders lead men, with Biden receiving 24% and Sanders getting 22%. Sanders continues to post a lead among voters 18-29, but Warren wins voters 30-39. Biden wins those 40 and older…. Harris has the best favorable rating among the candidates (74% favorable/15% unfavorable), but her positives don’t convert that well into votes for president. Warren has the second best favorability rating, 73% favorable/14% unfavorable.
CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS: The poll reports says that likely Democratic primary voters in California were also asked whether they felt each of seven characteristics was an advantage or disadvantage for a candidate running for president. The characteristics that voters consider most advantageous are:
- Has decades of political experience (88% advantage vs. 11% disadvantage)
- Under the age of 50 (76% advantage vs. 22% disadvantage)
- A woman (71% advantage vs. 28% disadvantage)
- A person of color (67% advantage vs. 31% disadvantage)
By contrast, California Democratic voters are about evenly split on another candidate characteristic, and two others are viewed as being more negative than positive characteristics. These include:
- A gay man (47% advantage vs. 51% disadvantage)
- A political outsider (38% advantage vs. 61% disadvantage)
- Over the age of 70 (16% advantage vs. 83% disadvantage)
10 MOST POPULAR ENTERTAINMENT CELEBRITIES
Among U.S. adults nationwide
% = Positive rating/Negative rating
- Betty White: 81%/3%
- Denzel Washington: 81%/3%
- Tim Hanks: 79%/6%
- Morgan Freeman: 78%/7%
- Harrison Ford: 77%/4%
- Sandra Bullock: 77%/5%
- Sean Connery: 75%/3%
- Jackie Chan: 75%/4%
- Michael J. Fox: 75%/5%
- Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: 74%/6%
RON’S COMMENT: The most popular celebrity among Millennials is Will Smith (78% positive). Among Boomers, it’s Carol Burnett (90% positive). Among Gen X, it’s Betty White (84% positive).
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, June 9-11
LA Times/Berkeley IGS Poll: June 6-10
MOST POPULAR ENTERTAINMENT CELEBRITIES: YouGov, June 2018 – June 2019
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.