Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 27, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: It's now one week before the Nov. 3 election and President Trump's job approval rating is 45%, one point less than the popular vote percentage he received in 2016.... Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (CNBC, Reuters) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 45%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Yahoo News) Biden +12 (51-39-2)
(USC) Biden +12 (54-42)
(CNBC) Biden +11 (51-40)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +5 (51-46-2)
(Rasmussen) Biden +2 (49-47)
Average of today’s polls: Biden +8.4
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s polling falls into two categories––surveys that give Biden wide double-digit leads and those that give him modest single-digit leads. When averaged, they’re showing Biden within the 7- to 9-point margin range we’ve been seeing for a while.
- Tracking: Yesterday we reported the USC poll had Biden 10 points ahead, today it’s 12 points; yesterday we reported the IDB/TIPP poll had Biden 7 points ahead, today it’s 5 points; yesterday we reported the Rasmussen poll had Trump 1 point ahead, today Biden leads by 2 points.
- Bottom line: While Biden’s lead bounces from poll to poll, the most recent national polling shows him leading across-the-board and most of the polls have him at or above 50%.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
PENNSYLVANIA (Civiqs): Biden +7
PENNSYLVANIA (Reuters): Biden +5
PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar-R): Even
PENNSYLVANIA (Insider Advantage): Trump +2
FLORIDA (FAU): Biden +2
FLORIDA (PoliticalIQ): Biden +2
WISCONSIN (Reuters): Biden +9
States Clinton carried in 2016
NEVADA (UNLV): Biden +9
MARYLAND (Gonzales): Biden +25
CALIFORNIA (Berkeley IGS): Biden +36
RON’S COMMENT: Conflicting polls in much-watched Pennsylvania. If the fracking issue is hurting Biden, we may not have seen its full extent yet…. Wisconsin looks good today for Biden and so does Florida, although the Sunshine State remains tight..... Trump's campaign had hoped they could pick up Nevada this time, but this poll shows that possibility may be out of reach.
Among voters in each state
NORTH CAROLINA (Trafalgar-R)
Sen. Thom Tillis (R) over Cal Cunningham (D): +2 (49-47)
COMMENT: Still in play, anything can happen. This Republican-affiliated poll, which often shows Republicans doing better than other polls, puts incumbent Tillis slightly ahead. Of the four prior polls, Cunningham led two by 6 points and the other two were tied.
Since 1824, which presidential candidate received the highest percentage of popular votes?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: Yahoo News/YouGov, Oct. 23-25; USC, Oct. 12-25; CNBC, Oct. 21-24; IBD/TIPP, Oct. 22-26; Rasmussen, Oct. 22-26.
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
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Lyndon Johnson. In 1964, he received 61.05% of the national popular vote. Following him was Franklin Roosevelt in 1936 (60.8%) and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.67%).
It should be noted that James Monroe received 80.61% of the popular votes cast in 1820, but only 15 of the 24 states chose electors by popular votes. Monroe also did not have organized opposition.