Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, January 24, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 46%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 since yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 30%
Bernie Sanders: 27%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Andrew Yang: 8%
Michael Bloomberg: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: As some other national polling has been showing, the gap between Biden and Sanders is tightening and the gap between Sanders and Warren is widening. The big surprise in this poll is Yang, running above Bloomberg and Buttigieg. That’s raised the eyebrows of more than a few suspicious Democratic operatives.
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +9 (53-44)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +9 (52-43)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +7 (52-45)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +5 (50-45)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +4 (49-45)
Amy Klobuchar over Donald Trump: +3 (48-45)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +2 (51-49)
Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (50-50)
Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump: even (50-50)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +2 (51-49)
RON’S COMMENT: Two polls, two very different pictures of the 2020 race. CNN shows Democrats easily beating Trump. Emerson shows the race just about tied. Who to believe? We will have to wait to see how this shakes out.
MISSISSIPPI: SENATE 2020
Among voters statewide
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) over Mike Espy (D): +8 (44-36)
RON’S COMMENT: In the 2018 special Senate election, Republican Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Espy by a 7-point margin. This was after she was appointed to fill the seat that Sen. Thad Cochran resigned…. This poll gives her an 8-point advantage in an expected rematch this November…. Espy has two opponents in the Democratic primary, Tober Bartee and Jensen Bohren …. Hyde-Smith’s job rating is 44% approve/36% disapprove, mirroring the trial heat numbers. She is the first woman elected to the Senate from Mississippi. If elected, Espy would be the first African American elected to the Senate from the state.
CONGRESSIONAL LEADER JOB APPROVAL
Among voters nationwide
% = Approve/Disapprove
Nancy Pelosi: 41%/51%
Chuck Schumer: 35%/48%
Kevin McCarthy: 31%/40%
Mitch McConnell: 37%/46%
RON’S COMMENT: Among members of their own parties: Pelosi is 74%/14% and Schumer is 59%/17% among Democrats…. McCarthy is 52%/20% and McConnell is 68%/13% among Republicans.
Among voters nationwide
How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress?
Passing an infrastructure spending bill
A top priority: 32%
An important, but lower priority: 40%
Not too important a priority: 11%
Should not be done: 2%
Don’t know: 15%
Constructing a wall along the U.S./Mexico border
A top priority: 27%
An important, but lower priority: 15%
Not too important a priority: 15%
Should not be done: 35%
Don’t know: 8%
Passing a bill to address climate change
A top priority: 39%
An important, but lower priority: 24%
Not too important a priority: 16%
Should not be done: 11%
Don’t know: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: 72% say passing an infrastructure spending bill is important, 63% say passing a bill to address climate change is important and 42% say constructing a wall along the U.S./Mexico border is important.
DEMOCRATS AND ELECTABILITY
Among Democratic voters nationwide
[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] Which is more important to you personally … ?
That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump: 57%.
That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate who shares your positions on major issues: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: CNN first asked this question in March of 2019. Then, 58% of Democrats said beating Trump was most important and 33% picked a candidate who shares their issues positions. Not much has changed. The groups that prioritize defeating Trump the most: women (60%), those 65+ (71%), higher income (65%) and college graduates (66%).
[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS] Regardless of who you may support, which Democratic candidate for president do you think … has the best chance to beat Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election
Joe Biden: 45%
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Michael Bloomberg: 7%\
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Andrew Yang: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden maintains the perception of electability among Democrats. Good news for Sanders: his rating has nearly doubled from 13% in June to 24% now. Bad news for Warren, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Klobuchar and Yang: They rank low on electability, all in single digits.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, Emerson College, Jan. 21-23
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Emerson College, Jan. 21-23; CNN, Jan. 16-19
MISSISSIPPI: Millsaps College/Chism Strategies, Jan. 2020
CONGRESSIONAL LEADER JOB APPROVAL: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 19-21
DEMOCRATS AND ELECTABILITY: CNN, Jan. 16-19
LEGISLATIVE PRIORITIES: Politico/Morning Consult, Jan. 17-19