Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 9, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 2 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Now that reactions to the Iranian action are registering in the polls, President Trump’s job rating has declined. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 47% (the Hill). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 since yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +7 50-43()
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +6 (47-41)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +4 (49-45)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +2 (46-44)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +2 (45-43)
RON’S COMMENT: All five Democrats are leading Trump in Michigan, according to this poll. Biden and Bloomberg do best. About half the interviews were conducted after the U.S. action in Iran…. Michigan is a critical state for Trump, he carried it by a narrow margin in 2016.
IRAN POLICY MOTIVATIONS
Among voters nationwide
Trump: When it comes to setting national policy on Iran, do you think the President is motivated more by political considerations or what he thinks is in the best interest of the US?
Political considerations: 46%
Best interests of the US: 44%
Not sure: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters are nearly split on the president’s motivations. While 83% of Republicans say the best interests of the US, only 10% of Democrats agree.
Congress: When it comes to setting national policy on Iran, do you think most members of the U.S. Congress are motivated more by political considerations or what most members think is in the best interest of the US?
Political considerations: 59%
Best interests of the US: 22%
Not sure: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: Congress does worse than Trump. A solid majority of voters say Congress is motivated by political considerations on Iran, and 43% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans agree.
TRUMP AND INTERNATIONAL CRISIS
Among voters nationwide
Are you confident in Donald Trump’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach?
Not sure: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: This is not good news for Trump––even though 44% approve of his overall job performance (based on today's average), only 39% have confidence in his ability to deal wisely with an international crisis. By party: 5% of Democrats, 34% of independents and 81% of Republicans have confidence in him.
Among adults nationwide
Would you classify yourself as a current smoker, ex-smoker, or non-smoker? Please call yourself a non-smoker if you have smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in your lifetime?
Current Smoker 16%
RON’S COMMENT: The percentage of current smokers is 17% among men, 16% among women, 13% among people 18-29 years old, 24% among those 30-44 years old, 19% among those 45-64 years old and 7% among those 65 and older. More blacks than whites are current smokers (20% vs. 16%). More lower income Americans (below $50k a year) are smokers than higher income Americans (above $100k) by 21-12.
Which, if any, of the following tobacco or nicotine products do you use on a regular basis? Please select all that apply.
- Store bought cigarettes: 12%
- E-cigarette: 4%
- Vaporizer: 4%
- Cigars: 3%
- Hand-rolled cigarettes: 3%
- Chewing Tobacco/Scud/Snuss: 3%
- Nicotine Gum: 2%
- Hookah/Shisha/Chicha: 2%
- Nicotine Patch: 2%
- Snortable Tobacco (e.g., snuff): 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Among 18-29-year-olds, 5% use e-cigarettes and 6% are vapers. Among 30-44-year-olds, 10% use e-cigarettes and 6% use vaporizers. Among people 45 and older, 2% use e-cigarettes and 1% used vaporizers. Highest use of cigars is among men (5%), 30-44-year-olds (6%) and blacks (5%). E-cigarette use is the same among Republicans and Democrats, but vaping is a little higher among Republicans (4% vs. 3%).
Do you approve or disapprove of the FDA ban on certain vaping products?
Approve of ban: 67%
Disapprove of ban: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: 69% of Democrats, 61% of independents and 75% of Republicans approve of the FDA ban on certain vaping products.
CANNABIS PRODUCT CONSUMPTION
Among adults nationwide
Which, if any, of the following cannabis products have you ever tried or consumed? Please select all that apply.
- Flower/bud for smoking (e.g, pre-rolled joints, shake): 22%
- Edible foods (e.g., baked goods, chocolates, candy, snacks: 19%
- Concentrates/extracts for vaping or dabbing: 11%
- Topical body products (lotions, creams, etc.): 10%
- Ingestible concentrates/extracts: 9%
- Cooking ingredients or condiments: 7%
- Infused beverages (e.g., alcohol, coffee, water): 5%
- Plants for growing (e.g., clones, seeds): 5%
- Bath products (e.g., soaps, soaks/salts): 4%
- Facial beauty products: 4%
- Other: 1%
- None of these: 56%
- Prefer not to say: 2%
Do you think that the use of marijuana should be made legal in the United States or not?
Yes, it should be legal: 56%
No, it should not be legal: 27%
Not sure: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Democrats, 54% of independents and 37% of Republicans think marijuana should be made legal.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MICHIGAN:Glengariff Group, Jan. 3-7
IRAN POLICY MOTIVATIONS, TRUMP AND FOREIGN POLICY, SMOKING, CANNABIS PRODUCT CONSUMPTION: The Economist/YouGov Poll, Jan. 5 - 7