Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 25, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (USA Today) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 46%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters in each state and district
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +5 (49-44)
NEVADA: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Jacky Rosen (D): +6 (47-41)
MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +7 (49-42)
MICHIGAN (MRG): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +16 (53-37)
WISCONSIN: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +15 (54-39)
CALIFORNIA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) over Kevin de Leon (D): +16 (43-27)
TEXAS––This poll shows the gap slightly smaller than other recent surveys that had Cruz up 7 to 8 points. The average of recent polls puts the GOP incumbent ahead by 6.7 points.
NEVADA––Republican incumbent Heller has led the last three polls. He averages a 5-point advantage––which is better than he had been doing.
WISCONSIN: Based on recent polling, Baldwin’s average lead is 13 points.
MICHIGAN––Two polls have Democratic incumbent Stabenow ahead, but paint different pictures of the race. One shows Stabenow with a strong lead. The other poll––and the most recent––has Republican James within striking distance. The average of recent polls has Stabenow ahead by 12.5 points.
CALIFORNIA––Feinstein holds a double-digit lead.
SOUTH DAKOTA: Billie Sutton (D) and Kristi Noem (R): even (45-45)
GEORGIA: Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +1 (46-45-4)
WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +3 (48-45)
MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R: +14 (50-36-2-4)
OKLAHOMA: Kevin Stitt (R) over Drew Edmondson (D): +7 (51-44)
CALIFORNIA (PPIC): Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +11 (49-38)
CALIFORNIA (Thomas Partners): Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +13 (54-41)
SOUTH DAKOTA––This governor’s race is a real barn burner. 10% of Democrats back Republican Noem and 19% of Republicans back Democrat Sutton. Independents break for Sutton 57-32. If she wins, Noem would be South Dakota’s first woman governor. If he wins, Sutton would be the first Democrat to win the governorship since 1974. Incumbent Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) is term limited.
GEORGIA––This race sits on the razor’s edge. Kemp wins whites 66-31, but Abrams wins blacks 84-11 and independents 50-41. The average of recent polls has Republican Kemp ahead by 1 point.
WISCONSIN: Based on recent polling, Democrat Evers has an average lead of 4 points in his battle to topple GOP incumbent Walker.
MICHIGAN––Democrat Whitmer holds a solid lead over Republican Schuette. Local operatives had expected more from Schuette. His personal rating is a lousy 27% positive/42% negative. Whitmer is 39% positive/26% negative. The incumbent GOP governor, Rick Snyder, is not running.
OKLAHOMA––Republican Stitt, a businessman, leads Democrat Edmondson, a former state AG, by 7 points in this poll conducted by a GOP-affiliated outfit. Among most likely voters, Stitt leads by 8 points. Stitt’s rating is 49% favorable/35% unfavorable. Edmondson is 42% favorable/41% unfavorable. Edmondson lost a gubernatorial bid in 2010 and two races for the U.S. House. His father, Ed Edmondson, served in Congress from the 1950s to the 1970s. Voter groups most interested in this election are suburban women, single women, Democratic women, suburban voters, and those 65 or older. Trump’s job rating is 54% approve/43% disapprove. Gov. Mary Fallin (R), one of the nation’s least popular governors, is term-limited.
CALIFORNIA––The average of recent polling gives Democrat Newsom a lead of 14.7 points.
VIRGINIA 10: Jennifer Wexton (D) over Rep. Barbara Comstock (R): +13 (56-43)
NEW JERSEY 3: Andrew Kim (D) over Rep. Tom MacArthur (R): +2 (48-46)
VIRGINIA 10––This poll shows Democrat Wexton with an even larger lead than other recent surveys. She averages a 9-point lead.
NEW JERSEY 3––Poll margins have been bouncing around, but Democrat Kim now has a narrow lead over GOP incumbent MacArthur.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS, NEVADA, WISCONSIN: Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics, Oct. 12-18
MICHIGAN: MRG, Oct. 14-18; EPIC-MRA, Oct. 18-23
CALIFORNIA: PPIC, Oct. 12-21
SOUTH DAKOTA: Mason-Dixon, Oct. 18-22
OKLAHOMA: Magellan (R), Oct. 22-23
VIRGINIA 10: Washington Post, Oct. 15-21
NEW JERSEY 3: Monmouth, Oct. 18-22