Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, June 12, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 54%
Same as last week
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 49% (Rasmussen) to 61% (The Hill). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 43% today (+1 from last week).
VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters nationwide
Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Coming after the recent Virginia primary, this new poll by a Republican oriented firm shows former Democratic governor McAuliffe in a tight race with Republican Youngkin, a former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, a large DC-based private equity, asset management and financial services firm…. McAuliffe has said Youngkin is “not a reasonable Republican” and is trying to tie his opponent to Donald Trump (who lost the state in 2020 by 10 points)…. Youngkin is running as a political outsider who says Virginia cannot afford “the recycled, tired, old policies" of McAuliffe…. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Democratic…. Internal data:
- McAuliffe leads the DC media market 56-39, but Youngkinwins the other regions: Norfolk/Newport News 51-44, Richmond/Petersburg 48-44, Roanoke/Lynchburg 49-46.
- McAuliffe’s personal rating is 40% favorable/38% unfavorable.
- Youngkin leads independents by a point.
NEW YORK CITY: MAYOR 2021
Among Democratic voters citywide
Eric Adams: 23%
Maya Wiley: 17%
Andrew Yang: 15%
Kathryn Garcia: 12%
Scott Stringer: 9%
Shaun Donovan: 4%
Ray McGuire: 3%
Diane Morales: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Wiley moving up to second place, displacing Yang and Garcia. While Adams sits atop the field, there is a three-way battle for second place in this volatile contest…. Wiley is VP for social justice at the New School, former legal analyst for NBC and MSNBC, former counsel to Mayor de Blasio and former ACLU and NAACP Legal Defense Fund attorney. She’s running to the left of the Democratic primary field.... The Democratic primary is June 22 and the general election is Nov. 2; ranked-choice voting will be used.
OREGON AND RACE
Among adults statewide
Key findings from a statewide survey in Oregon sponsored by the Western States Center:
- 40% of the sample said they somewhat or strongly agreed with the statement, "America must protect and preserve its white European heritage," compared with 31% in a 2018 survey.
- In contrast, 86% of the sample said they somewhat or strongly agreed with the statement that America must protect its multicultural heritage, down slightly from 92% in 2018.
- 39% of the sample said they somewhat or strongly agreed with the statement, "White people in America face discrimination and unfair treatment based on race." But 75% of the sample said they agreed that people of color face discrimination and unfair treatment based on race.
- Public support for Black Lives Matter was at 58% in January, down from a peak of 66% in July 2020, after the murder of George Floyd by a now-former Minneapolis police officer and the protests it touched off nationwide. The 2018 panel had support at 54%.
- Open support for paramilitary or militia groups was at 14%, and for white nationalists, 11%. Support for the latter has risen from 6% in two recent surveys. But strong majorities, ranging from 68% to 74%, reject support for paramilitary or militia groups and support laws to bar heavily armed people at protests. ––excerpted from a report in the Portland Tribune, June 11
CONFIDENCE IN U.S. PRESIDENT, FOREIGN LEADERS
Among adults in 10 countries
(Asked of adults in each country) How much confidence do you have in the U.S. president [Trump 2020, Biden 2021] to do the right thing regarding world affairs — a lot of confidence, some confidence, not too much confidence or no confidence at all?
% = Confidence in Trump / Biden
South Korea: 17%/67%
RON’S COMMENT: As you can see, people in nations around the world have much more confidence in Biden to do the right thing in world affairs than they had last year in Trump. Biden’s rating is highest in Germany (78%) and lowest in Greece and South Korea (67% each).
(Asked of adults in each country) For each, tell me how much confidence you have in each leader to do the right thing regarding world affairs – a lot of confidence, some confidence, not too much confidence, or no confidence at all.
% = Confidence in Merkel / Macron / Putin / Xi
South Korea: 75%/64%/23%/15%
RON’S COMMENT: Germany’s Angela Merkel generates the most confidence of the leaders polled in these countries. Her range is from 30% (Greece) to 86% (Spain)…. France’s Macron ranges from 44% (Italy) to 81% (Greece)…. Russia’s Putin ranges from 18% (Spain) to 55% (Greece)…. China’s Xi ranges from 10% (Japan) to 36% (Greece).
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: WPA Intelligence (R), June 2-6
MAYOR: NEW YORK CITY 2021: Emerson College, June 7-8
OREGON AND RACE: Western States Center/DHM Research/Oregon Values and Beliefs Center, January 8-13
CONFIDENCE IN U.S. PRESIDENT, FOREIGN LEADERS: Pew Research Center, March 12-May 26
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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