Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 21, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Politico) to 53% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(WSJ/NBC) Biden +8 (51-43)
(NPR/PBS) Biden +9 (52-43)
Today’s average: Biden +8.5
Average of last five polls: Biden +6.8
RON’S COMMENT: These two national surveys show solid leads for Biden…. In the NPR/PBS poll, two questions were asked. One with Trump and Biden and the other with third-party candidates added. Surprisingly, the third candidates received a total of 7% of the vote––and Biden's lead narrowed from 9 to 7 points.... Keep in mind that these numbers are based on polling completed before Justice Ginsburg’s passing…. From the WSJ/NBC poll:
- Trump’s rating is 41% positive, 6% neutral and 52% negative.
- Biden’s rating is 43% positive, 12% neutral and 45% negative.
- Pence’s rating is 38% positive, 13% neutral and 44% negative.
- Harris’ rating is 37% positive, 15% neutral and 38% negative.
- Black Lives Matter Movement is 48% positive, 15% neutral and 37% negative.
- 29% say the presidential debates will be extremely or quite important. Another 27% say just somewhat important and 44% say not at all important.
- A WSJ/NBC/Telemundo poll finds that Biden leads Trump among registered Latino voters, 62-26. Hillary Clinton beat Trump 66-28 among Latino voters in 2016.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
FLORIDA (CBS): Biden +2
PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar-R): Biden +2
NORTH CAROLINA (Emerson): Biden +1
TEXAS (CBS): Trump +2
MONTANA (NYT): Trump +7
MISSOURI (Scout): Trump +8
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a small lead in Florida in this poll. Based on the last four polls, Biden’s average lead in this critical state is a narrow 2.5 points…. Though Trump is winning Texas, Montana and Missouri, he’s leading them by much reduced margins from his 2016 vote-count leads––which were Texas 9 points, Montana 20 points and Missouri 19 points…. These numbers are based on polling mostly done before the passing of Justice Ginsburg.
Among voters in each state
IOWA (Des Moines Register)
Theresa Greenfield (D) over Sen. Joni Ernst (R): +3 (45-42)
RON’S COMMENT: 56% of Iowa’s voters say incumbent Ernst hasn’t done enough in the Senate to benefit Iowans––and that includes 19% of those who say they will vote for her and 25% who say they will vote for President Trump. Another 33% of likely voters say Ernst has done enough to help Iowans and 11% are unsure. These numbers are not good for an incumbent.... Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
- If you read anything today, read this eye-popping report from the Des Moines Register: “According to the ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics, Iowa has the second-most expensive Senate race in the country in terms of ad dollars despite its relatively cheap media markets. So far, both parties and various outside groups have reserved a combined $155.5 million in TV, radio and digital advertising through Election Day—an amount that is surpassed only by the $200.2 millionthat’s been reserved in the North Carolina Senate race.” Wow!
Sen. Steve Daines (R) over Steve Bullock (D): +1 (45-44)
COMMENT: Razor thin. Handicappers rate this race tossup or lean Republican.
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +5 (46-41)
COMMENT: This is the smallest lead for incumbent Cornyn we’ve seen. His average margin in the three previous polls had him up by 9 points…. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.
BY GENERATION: TRUMP VS. BIDEN ON ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
Who do you think would better handle _____ as president … ?
Handle the economy:
GenZ/Millennials (Biden +1)
GenX (Trump +15)
Boomers (Trump +12)
Silent/Greatest (Biden +4)
Handle race relations:
GenZ/Millennials (Biden +34)
GenX (Biden +20)
Boomers (Biden +7)
Silent/Greatest (Biden +16)
Handle the coronavirus pandemic:
GenZ/Millennials (Biden +25)
GenX (Biden +10)
Boomers (Biden +3)
Silent/Greatest (Biden +13)
GenZ/Millennials (Biden +9)
GenX (Biden +1)
Boomers (Trump +3)
Silent/Greatest (Biden +5)
COMMENT: Biden leads by a single point among GenZ/Millennials on the economy, with other generations back Trump. Biden leads all gen groups on handling race relations and the pandemic. The two candidates are most competitive on crime, with Biden leading the issue narrowly among GenZ/Millennials, GenX, and Silent/Greatest.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: WSJ/NBC, Sept. 13-16; NPR/PBS/Marist, Sept. 11-16
STATE POLLS: POLLSTERS INDICATED ALONG WITH RESULTS; MOST INTERVIEWING CONDUCTED WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, OR OTHERWISE NOTED.
BY GENERATION: TRUMP VS. BIDEN ON ISSUES: Marist/NPR/Marist, Sep. 11–16
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron