Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, December 9, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Politico, Quinnipiac) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
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Among voters statewide
Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +2 (46-44)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +2 (45-43)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +6 (47-41)
Donald Trump (R) over Michael Bloomberg (D): +7 (47-40)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +13 (47-34)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump beats all comers in this Arizona poll, although the heats against Biden and Buttigieg are close. Trump led Hillary Clinton in the state by nearly 4 points in 2016. Republicans have carried Arizona in 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, but Democrats have been aiming for a shift…. When voters are asked which party they support for Congress, it splits even, 44-44.
DEMOCRATS: CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION
Among Democrats nationwide
% of Democrats = Would consider voting for each candidate
Joe Biden: 53%
Elizabeth Warren: 48%
Bernie Sanders: 38%
Pete Buttigieg: 35%
Cory Booker: 20%
Amy Klobuchar: 17%
Michael Bloomberg: 12%
Andrew Yang: 11%
Candidates with less than 10% consideration not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This is the percentage of Democrats who would consider voting for each candidate for the nomination. This is not the same as voting for that candidate, but can provide insights into each candidate's potential second-choice strength.... Note that Biden is the only one with a majority of Democrats who would consider voting for him…. Note: Each voter was allowed to pick more than one candidate, which is why it adds up to more than 100.
TRUMP/UKRAINE QUID PRO QUO
Among voters nationwide
Do you think Donald Trump purposefully withheld military aid to Ukraine in order to get the President of Ukraine to investigate allegations of corruption against the Biden family?
Not sure: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: 84% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans say there was what is being called a "quid pro quo."
If it is proven that Donald Trump purposefully withheld military aid to Ukraine in order to get the President of Ukraine to investigate allegations of corruption against the Biden family, do you think that is an impeachable offense?
Yes, impeachable offense: 50%
No, not an impeachable offense: 40%
Not sure: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 84% of Democrats, 40% of independents and 11% of Republicans say it is an impeachable offense if proven.
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE IN U.S. ELECTIONS
Among voters nationwide
How much does it matter to you if a foreign country interferes in U.S. elections?
A lot: 74%
Doesn’t matter at all: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: 83% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans say it matters a lot.
Do you believe that Russia interfered with the 2016 U.S. Presidential election?
Not sure: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans say Russia interfered with the 2016 election.
[Asked of those who believe Russia interfered with the 2016 U.S. Presidential election] Do you think Russian interference in 2016 U.S. Presidential election affected the outcome of the election?
Affected the outcome: 64%
Did not affect the outcome: 23%
Not sure: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: It should be noted that these percentages are based on voters who say there was Russian interference, so it's 64% of 60%, which equals 38% of all voters who say Russia interfered and the interference affected the outcome.... By party: 84% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans say Russian interference affected the outcome.
Do you believe that Ukraine interfered with the 2016 U.S. Presidential election?
Not sure: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: 23% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans say Ukraine interfered with the 2016 election.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, Dec. 3-4 :
DEMOCRATS: CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION, TRUMP/UKRAINE QUID PRO QUO, FOREIGN INTERFERENCE IN U.S. ELECTIONS: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 1-3