Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 28, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Down 1 from Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 50% (The Hill). Without these extremes it would still be 45%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Thursday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020at approval trend.
Among general election voters
(3-way) Biden over Trump: +6 (44-38-8)
(2-way) Biden over Trump: +10 (50-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads Trump by 6 points in a three-way race with a generic third-party candidate getting a substantial 8% of the vote. In a two-way race, Biden jumps up 6 points and Trump rises 2 points.... This poll in December had Trump leading Biden by 3 points.... Looking at both candidates on their traits, USA Today reports that their poll shows:
- The current president leads on strong leader, with 45% saying that described Trump and 43% saying it described Biden.
- Biden swamped Trump when it came to empathy; 57% said it described the former vice president and just 39% said it described the president.
- Trump fared a bit better on how to get things done. 51% said that phrase described him and 48% said it described Biden.
- Biden scored better on standing up for U.S. interests. 58% said that described Biden and 53% said it described Trump.
- Honest and trustworthy was Trump’s worst rating. Only 31% said that phrase described him, while 47% said the phrase described Biden.
- Biden was much more likely to be seen as someone who could work with foreign leaders; 64% said it described him versus 45% who said it described President Trump.
Biden over Trump: +3 (46-43)
RON’S COMMENT: The three previous polls showed Biden ahead in Florida by an average of 3.3 points. This new poll is consistent with that result…. In 2016, Trump carried the Sunshine State by a narrow 1.2 points. In the last six presidential elections, Republicans won the state three times and Democrats won it three times…. Internal data:
- Biden’s personal rating in the state is 52% favorable/43% unfavorable.
- Trump’s personal rating in the state is 48% favorable/49% unfavorable.
- Trump does a little better on job rating: 51% approve/47% disapprove.
- On the coronavirus, Trump’s rating in Florida is 48% approve/49% disapprove and on the economy it’s 53% approve/42% disapprove.
- 55% think the Trump administration was too slow to respond to the coronavirus outbreak.
- GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is rated 59% approve/33 disapprove.
- The poll finds that 75% of voters in Florida are personally concerned about getting coronavirus and 74% are personally concerned about economic hardship in the current situation.
Biden over Trump: +1 (45-44)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is a danger sign for Trump’s campaign. He won Ohio by 8 points in 2016…. In a March poll, Trump led Biden by 4 points. The tightening of the race appears to be a function of Trump losing support, not of Biden gaining it…. “Early on, many thought Ohio wouldn’t be in play,” Robert Alexander, founding director of Ohio Northern University’s Institute for Civics and Public Policy was reported as saying. “Biden running dead even with Trump in the Buckeye state counters this narrative.”
Trump over Biden: +5 (49-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016.
Biden over Trump: +36 (65-29)
RON’S COMMENT: No surprise here. Trump lost New York by 22 points in 2016––and appears to be headed for another shellacking in his home state…. In the survey, Biden wins independents 61-32, women 71-24, men 58-36, moderates 68-27, New York City 78-17, whites 57-39, Catholics 58-38, Protestants 68-28 and Jewish voters 61-35. Trump wins Republicans 75-23.
Biden over Trump: +16 (54-38)
RON’S COMMENT: No surprise here. Trump lost New Jersey by 14 points in 2016––and he appears to be headed for another defeat in this state that voted Democratic in all seven of the last seven presidential elections.
NEW YORK POLITICS
Among voters statewide
Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D)
Favorable: 77%/Unfavorable: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: 90% of Democrats, 53% of Republicans and 73% of independents give their governor a favorable rating…. When the poll rated Cuomo specifically on his handling of the coronavirus, he was 84% approve/15% disapprove.
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D)
Favorable: 55%/Unfavorable: 39%
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Favorable: 55%/Unfavorable: 31%
Among voters statewide
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +10 (46-36)
RON’S COMMENT: The last four polls show Democratic incumbent Peters slowly expanding his lead, from 4 points to 10 points. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.
Who was the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry Texas?
(see answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: USA Today/Suffolk, April 21-25
FLORIDA: Fox News, April 18-21
NEW JERSEY: Monmouth, April 16-19
TEXAS: UT/Texas Tribune, April 10-19
NEW YORK: Siena, April 19-23
OHIO: Wallace University, April 20-25
MICHIGAN SENATE: Fox News, April 18-21
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Jimmy Carter. He carried Texas in 1976 against Gerald Ford, 51-48.