Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, July 29, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Morning Consult) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from Friday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
NEVADA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
Kamala Harris: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Nevada poll shows Biden first and Sanders a fairly close second with Warren and Harris battling for a distant third place. Since Morning Consult’s Nevada poll in May, Biden is down 9, Sanders is down 2, Warren is up 4, Harris is up 3, Buttigieg is down 2, Yang is up 3, O’Rourke is up 1 and Castro is up 2––similar to trends we’ve seen in other states.
Among Democrats nationwide
Do you think the organizers of the second set of Democratic Primary debates should let all announced candidates participate or should they limit the number of participants?
Let all announced candidates participate: 39%
Limit the number of participants: 41%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: Even though everybody complains about having too many participants in the Democratic debates this year, Democrats are almost evenly split on whether to limit the number of participants or to let all announced candidates participate. Also, one in five aren’t sure what to do.
Among adults nationwide
Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings –
Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process: 33%
Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process: 22%
God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so: 40%
RON’S COMENT: What is viewed as the creationism position––“God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so––is accepted by two out of five Americans. That’s higher than it was in 2017 (38%), but lower than in 2014 (42%) or 2012 (46%)…. In the most recent poll, 34% of Democrats, 55% of Republicans, 34% of independents, 56% of Protestants, 34% of Catholics, 48% of adults without college degrees and 23% of adults with college degrees agree with the creationism position.
COLORADO: GOVERNOR, RECALL
Among voters statewide
Job approval rating of Gov. Jared Polis (D)
RON’S COMMENT: 75% of Democrats, 23% of Republicans and 49% of independents approve of the job Democratic Gov. Polis is doing.
Recall of Gov. Jared Polis (D)
Yes, recall him: 38%
No, don’t recall him: 47%
RON’C COMMENT: Roughly, the same percentage voters who disapprove of the governor also want to recall him. About two weeks ago, a group called “Dismiss Polis” filed a petition with the Colorado Secretary of State in an effort to gather more than 631,00 valid signatures—or 25% of the total ballots cast in last November’s gubernatorial election––by Sept. 6. Most observers believe this will be an impossible task…. The Colorado Independent reports that recall supporters are basing their longshot effort on “public anger and frustration” aimed at the leftward, “progressive” tilt of the recent legislative session and bills signed by Polis, who was just elected last year. Legislation at issue includes: Casting Colorado’s Electoral votes for the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote; tightening regulations on oil and gas; new sex education requirements and prohibiting emphasis on abstinence as the sole preventable method; and the “red flag” measure that allows the temporary seizure of an individual’s firearms if he or she is seen as a threat to themselves or others.
A MESSAGE FROM CERTUS INSIGHTS
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: Morning Consult, data extracted from a national sample during the first three weeks of July
COLORADO: Magellan Strategies, July 15-17
DEBATES: The Economist/YouGov, July 21-23
CREATIONISM: Gallup, June 3-16
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.