Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, March 27, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Quinnipiac) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
Impact of Mueller report on Trump’s job rating:
- The Politico/Morning Consult poll reports numbers based on interviews conducted entirely after release of the Mueller report’s summary. Their new poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday, pegs the president’s job rating at 42% approve/55% disapprove.Their March 15-17 poll found Trump’s job rating at 41% approve/54% disapprove. If this is accurate, it indicatesalmost no change.
- However, the Economist/YouGov poll, which was taken Sunday through Tuesday, puts Trump’s job approval at 46%, which is 4 points higher than its March 17-19 poll which had it at 42%. If this is accurate, it indicates amore substantial shift in Trump’s favor.
- We still need to wait a few days to get a full reading.
TRUMP AND THE MUELLER REPORT
Among voters nationwide
Impact of Mueller findings on voter feelings toward Trump: Knowing what you know now, do you have a more or less favorable view of Donald Trump?
More favorable: 39%
Less favorable: 43%
Don’t know: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Democrats, 32% of independents and 78% of Republicans say they have a more favorable view of Trump since release of the Mueller report's summary.
Make report public: As you may know, Special Counsel Robert Mueller has concluded his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and submitted a report to Attorney General William Barr. Do you believe Mueller’s report should be made public?
Fairness of investigation: Do you think the Department of Justice’s investigation into Russia’s influence on the 2016 presidential election was handled fairly or unfairly?
Don’t know: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: In the end, there are remarkably modest partisan differences on perceptions of the fairness of the investigation: 51% of Democrats, 43% of independents and 41% of Republicans say it was handled fairly. Democrats liked the process and Republicans liked the result.
Obstruction: Which of the following comes closest to your understanding of the results of Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel Investigation, even if none is exactly right?
- Mueller found that President Trump obstructed the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election: 15%
- Mueller found that President Trump did not obstruct the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election: 27%
- Mueller did not make a determination on whether President Trump obstructed the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election: 37%
- Don’t know: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: 48% of Republicans say Mueller determined that Trump did not commit obstruction.
And do you think President Trump tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia?
- Yes, I think President Trump tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia: 47%
- No, I don’t think President Trump tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia: 39%
- Don’t know: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: Though Mueller did not make a determination as to whether Trump obstructed the Russia investigation, 47% of voters say they believe Trump tried to impede or obstruct it.
How likely do you think it is that Russia has compromising information on President Trump?
Not likely: 35%
Don’t know: 14%
Conspiracy: Based on what you know, did Special Counsel Robert Mueller find any evidence that President Donald Trump or his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election?
- Yes, Mueller found evidence that President Trump or his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election: 21%
- No, Mueller did not find evidence that President Trump or his campaign conspired with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election: 55%
- Don’t know: 24%
MAINE: SENATE 2020
Among voters statewide
Sen. Susan Collins (R) over Sara Gideon (D): +22 (51-29-Ind 12)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows GOP incumbent Collins starting off her re-election bid with a wide lead over Democrat Gideon, who is Speaker of the House in Maine…. Job ratings in the state: Collins 62% approve/37% disapprove, Sen. Angus King (Ind) 66% approve/31% disapprove, Gov. Janet Mills (D) 56% approve/40% disapprove.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 35%
Bernie Sanders: 25% (-2 since last week)
Kamala Harris: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 8%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Cory Booker: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 2% (+1)
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Terry McAuliffe: 0%
RON’S COMMENT: Little change from last week. Sanders dipped 2 points and Buttigieg went up from 1% to 2%…. If Biden doesn’t run, most of his votes go to Sanders (33%), Harris (12%) and O’Rourke (12%)…. On another note: Harris, O’Rourke and Booker have nearly identical personal ratings (45-48% favorable/12% unfavorable). Biden’s rating is 79% favorable/11% unfavorable among Democrats. Sanders is 74% favorable/14% unfavorable. Warren has the highest negative rating of all the candidates tested among her party’s voters, but she’s still heavily positive, 52% favorable/18% unfavorable.... In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC, NV), Biden leads with 38%, Sanders is second with 27% and Harris is third with 8%.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, March 18-24
TRUMP AND THE MUELLER REPORT: Politico/Morning Consult, March 25-26
MAINE: Pan Atlantic Research, March 4-13
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.