Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 24, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (CBS) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters in each state and district
NEW JERSEY: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) over Bob Hugin (R): +5 (51-46)
INDIANA: Mike Braun (R) over Sen. Joe Donnelly (D): +4 (47-43-3)
MONTANA (MTN-MSU): Sen. Jon Tester (D) over Matt Rosendale (R): +3 (46-43)
MONTANA (MSU-Billings): Sen. Jon Tester (D) over Matt Rosendale (R): +9 (47-38)
FLORIDA (FAU): Rick Scott (R) over Sen. Bill Nelson (D): +1 (42-41)
FLORIDA (Gravis): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +4 (49-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Four Democratic incumbents, all in fairly competitive races going into the stretch.
NEW JERSEY––Previous polling had Democratic incumbent Menendez ahead by 7 to 10 points. This new poll shows a closer 5-point race. Here are two pieces of data that explain why Republican Hugin is still in the hunt: First, 54% of voters say Menendez’s corruption trial factors “a lot” or “some” into their vote. Second, only 29% of Menendez voters are “very enthusiastic” to vote for their candidate, while 58% of Hugin voters say the same about their candidate.
INDIANA––Republican Braun has moved ahead of Democratic incumbent Donnelly in this poll, taken by a GOP-affiliated firm. Braun’s lead in this survey rests upon his lopsided support from men (55-36). Donnelly wins women 49-39 and independents 48-37. Trump’s rating in Indiana––52% approve/46% disapprove––helps Braun.
MONTANA––Two polls paint two different pictures of this race. While a 3-point Tester lead is far from insurmountable, a 9-point lead seems pretty strong. But: Interviewing for the poll showing a 3-point lead began five weeks ago and ended about two weeks ago, which makes its numbers stale. The average of recent polls has Tester ahead by 5.3 points.
FLORIDA––In the last six polls, four showed Democrat Nelson ahead and two showed Scott ahead. The average of recent polls has Nelson ahead by 3.5 points.
KANSAS: Kris Kobach (R) and Laura Kelly (D): even (41-41-10-L2)
FLORIDA (FAU): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +4 (41-37)
FLORIDA (Gravis): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +5 (51-46)
GEORGIA: Brian Kemp (R) and Stacey Abrams (D): even (48-48-L1)
ALASKA: Mike Dunleavy (R) over Mark Begich (D): +4 (48-44-5)
CONNECTICUT: Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +4 (40-36-8)
KANSAS––Despite the state’s Republican orientation, this race has been close largely because of Kobach’s negatives. This new poll, conducted by a Democratic-affiliated outfit, shows a tie. A third candidate, independent Greg Orman, is drawing 10%. Also, a Libertarian is getting 2%.
FLORIDA––Gillum (D) has led every public poll since August. The average of recent surveys has him up by 4.6 points.
GEORGIA––This race continues to be super tight. Neither candidate has had more than a 2-point lead since the primaries. Democrat Abrams is campaigning on expansion of Medicaid and her allies are attacking election officials (i.e., Kemp) for voter suppression of minority voters––53,000 voter applications are on hold and supposedly 70% of them are minorities. The average of recent polls has Republican Kemp ahead by 1 point. The last Democrat elected governor of Georgia was Roy Barnes in 1998.
ALASKA––This gubernatorial election has had a fascinating turn. Last week, incumbent Gov. Bill Walker (I) withdrew from the race and endorsed Democrat Begich, a former U.S. senator. At the time, Begich was running third. This poll computes that Begich is now running a respectable second to Republican Dunleavy. Worth watching.
CONNECTICUT: Though Democrat Lamont holds the lead, this poll finds a closer contest than previous polling. An independent candidate draws 8%. Gov. Dan Malloy (D), who is one of the least popular governors in the nation, is not seeking re-election. Worth watching.
GEORGIA 6: Rep. Karen Handel (R) over Lucy McBath (D): +4 (49-45)
NEW MEXICO 2: Yvette Herrell (R) over Xochitl Torres Small (D): +1 (45-44)
MINNESOTA 1: Dan Feehan (D) over Jim Hagedorn (R): +2 (47-45)
GEORGIA 6––Republican incumbent Handel––who won a celebrated and very expensive special election last year (more than $55 million was spent in total)––posts a modest lead over gun control advocate McBath.
NEW MEXICO 2––This is an open seat in a GOP-held district that is heavily rural with a large Hispanic population. It’s now held by Republican Steve Pearce, who’s running for governor.
MINNESOTA 1––Here’s a Democratic House seat that Republicans may have a shot to win. Democrat Feehan carries women 53-38, while Republican Hagedorn carries men 52-41. The seat is now held by Democrat Tim Walz, who’s running for governor.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
INDIANA: Mason Strategies (R), Oct. 15-20
MONTANA: MTN/MSU, Sept. 15-Oct. 6
FLORIDA: Florida Atlantic Univ., Oct. 18-21
GEORGIA: Opinion Savvy, Oct. 21-22
KANSAS: PPP (D), Oct. 17-21
ALASKA: Alaska Survey Research, Oct. 19-22
NEW JERSEY: Rutgerts/Eagleton, Oct. 12-16
GEORGIA 6: JMC, Oct. 13-18
NEW MEXICO 2: NYT/Siena, Oct. 19-23
MINNESOTA 1: SurveyUSA, Oct. 17-21
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.