Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, July 16, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 36% (Quinnipiac) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 41%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as Tuesday), which is 15 points higher than his approval rating….See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
(WSJ/NBC) Biden: +11
(CNBC) Biden: +10
(Rasmussen) Biden: +3
(Quinnipiac) Biden: +15
(Economist) Biden: +9
Average of last four polls: Biden +9.6
RON’S COMMENT: Biden averages a healthy lead in these latest five national polls. Also:
- The Economist poll finds that 39% of voters approve of Biden’s economic plan, while 34% disapprove of it.
- The CNBC poll finds the Libertarian Party candidate getting 3% of the nationwide vote and the Green Party candidate getting 2 percent. These numbers need to be watched––third-party candidates can syphon off votes from the major candidates in critical states the are close.
- Quinnipiac often shows Democrats doing better than other polls, and Rasmussen often shows Trump doing better than other polls. Interestingly, the average of these two polls today is Biden +9, which is close to the average of all five polls (Biden +9.6). It should also be mentioned that the CNBC numbers were produced by Change Research, a Public Benefit Corporation that is generally associated with Democrats.
IN THE STATES
(Gravis) Florida: Biden +10
(CNBC) Florida: Biden +7
(CNBC) Pennsylvania: Biden +8
(Monmouth) Pennsylvania: Biden +13
(CNBC) North Carolina: Biden +1
(CNBC) Michigan: Biden +6
(CNBC) Wisconsin: Biden +6
(CNBC) Arizona: Biden +6
(Auburn) Alabama: Trump +14
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s leads in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona are bad news for Trump––all states Trump won in 2016. North Carolina is also bad news for Trump, but a 1-point deficit is much easier to overcome than 6- to 13-point deficits.…. While Trump easily wins Alabama, his 14-point advantage is half of his 2016 vote-margin (28 points) over Hillary Clinton in the state.
Among voters in each state
Tommy Tuberville (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +8 (44-36)
COMMENT: This poll was taken before Tuesday’s primary and it showed Republican challenger Tuberville leading incumbent Democrat Jones by a clear lead. This has always been an uphill run for Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate this year. Before we reach any fixed conclusions, let’s wait for some post-primary polling.
Among voters in each state
Greg Gianforte (R) over Mike Cooney (D): +4 (46-42)
COMMENT: This poll shows the Montana governor’s race to be fairly close, despite the state’s red orientation. Republican Gianforte’s rating is 40% favorable/47% unfavorable. Democrat Mike Cooney is 27% favorable/25% unfavorable. Gianforte is the current U.S. Representative, elected statewide. Cooney is the current lieutenant governor…. Handicappers rate the race tossup or lean Republican.
Among voters nationwide
Do you believe that the Democratic National Convention and the Republican National Convention should be held, or should they both be cancelled due to COVID-19?
Hold conventions as scheduled: 31%
Cancel conventions: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of voters would like to see the national conventions cancelled because of the pandemic. 77% of Biden’s supporters and 26% of Trump's supporters favor cancellation.
DIRECTION OF COUNTRY
Among voters nationwide
Would you say things in this country today are...
Generally headed in the right direction: 23%
Off on the wrong track: 70%
Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: 7% of Biden's supporters and 46% of Trump's supporters say the country is headed in the right direction…. 89% of Biden's supporters and 45% of Trump's supporters say the country is on the wrong track.
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Anthony Fauci: 63%/27%
Betsy DeVos: 26%/45%
Centers for Disease Control (CDC): 69%/25%
RON’S COMMENT: The skirmish with Fauci does not seem to be good politics for the White House; he's too popular to be a useful target. A big majority of voters have a favorable opinion of him. 84% of Biden’s supporters and 38% of Trump’s supporters give Fauci favorable ratings…. DeVos does not appear to be a politically effective spokesperson for the administration. Her ratings lean heavily negative. 10% of Biden’s supporters and 48% of Trump’s supporters rate her favorably…. The CDC maintains substantial public support. 83% of Biden’s supporters and 53% of Trump’s supporters rate it favorably.
Among adults nationwide
K-12: Do you believe that K-12 schools should reopen for in-person learning or online learning this fall?
Completely/mostly in-person: 31%
Completely/mostly online: 58%
RON’S COMMENT: Americans are reluctant to re-open K-12 either partially or completely in-person. A clear majority favors a mostly or completely online approach.
Higher Ed: Do you believe that colleges and universities should reopen for in-person learning or online learning this fall?
Completely/mostly in-person: 29%
Completely/mostly online: 63%
RON’S COMMENT: There is no major difference between K-12 and higher ed on this question, although the majority that favors mostly or completely online in higher ed is a bit bigger than for K-12.
CALIFORNIA AND THE VIRUS
Among adults statewide
Trump: Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Donald Trump has responded to the coronavirus?
Newsom: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Gavin Newsomhas responded to the coronavirus?
RON’S COMMENT: 52% of Republicans, 80% of Democrats and 51% of independents approve of the way Democrat Newsomhas responded to the coronavirus.
Open schools: In the fall, should California public schools in Kindergarten through 12th grade….
Not open at all: 21%
Open only for remote learning: 25%
Open for a “hybrid” school model: 34%
Open for in-person learning only: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Only 10% of California voters favor opening K-12 schools for in-person learning and twice as many, 21%, oppose opening schools at all. Nearly six out of 10 prefer something in the middle…. Excerpts from poll report:
- 53% of California parents say if schools do open for in-person instruction, it should be in session for half days. 34% prefer full days.
- 33% of California adults say the decisions about if and how California schools reopen should be made by individual districts; 26% say the decisions should be made at the county or regional level; 22% say at the state level; just 11% say the decisions should be made nationally.
- 31% of California adults say high schools should not have any competitive sports programs this fall; 39% say only sports requiring very little contact between players should be permitted; 16% say a full range of high school sports should be offered. Among parents of high-school aged students, 27% say a full range of sports should be offered and 21% say no high school sports should take place.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NATIONAL: The Economist/YouGov, July 12-14; CNBC/Change Research (D), July 10-12; Rasmussen, July 8-14; Quinnipiac, July 9-13; WSJ/NBC, July 9-12
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION STATES: CNBC/Change Research (D), July 10-12; Gravis, July 10-12; Monmouth, July 9-13
CANCEL CONVENTIONS, DIRECTION OF COUNTRY, FAVORABILITY RATINGS, RE-OPENING SCHOOLS: The Economist/YouGov, July 12-14
CALIFORNIA AND THE VIRUS: KABC-TV, July 8-10
ALABAMA: Alabama Univ. at Montgomery, July 2-9
MONTANA: PPP (D), July 9-10
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. We will return to regular daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron