Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, October 1, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 since yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Most of the interviewing for these polls was conducted before the debate…. Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 44% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 45%.... Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 since yesterday)….See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Economist) Biden +8 (50-42)
(Reuters) Biden +9 (51-42)
(Rasmussen) Biden +8 (51-43)
Today’s average: Biden +8.3
Average of last five polls: Biden +7.2
RON’S COMMENT: Most of the interviewing for these polls was conducted before the debate, so today’s average doesn’t give us a measure of the post-debate world.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
IOWA (WHO-TV): Biden +2
States Clinton carried in 2016
NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH): Biden +9
NEW HAMPSHIRE (UMass/Lowell): Biden +9
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Biden +14
RON’S COMMENT: Hillary Clinton carried New Hampshire by less than a point in 2016. Based on these three polls, Biden has an average 10.7-point lead in the state…. Biden leads in today's Iowa poll, it’s a state Trump won by 9 points in 2016…. Note these polls were taken before the debate.
Among voters in each state
SOUTH CAROLINA (Quinnipiac)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) and Jaime Harrison (D): Even
COMMENT: Democrat Harrison has incumbent Graham on the ropes. He’s closed the gap in a race that most observers expected Graham to easily win. The ads being used against Graham are worth watching. Handicappers rate the contest lean Republican.
Anti-Lindsey Graham ads:
GEORGIA Special Election Open Primary (Quinnipiac)
Raphael Warnock (D): 31%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 23%
Doug Collins (R): 22%
Matt Lieberman (D): 9%
Ed Tarver (D): 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Loeffler has been running first by a small margin. This new poll shows Warnock solidifying Democrats in this open primary and climbing to the top of the field. Based on this survey, Loeffler and Collins are battling for second place and a runoff berth…. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican.
GEORGIA Regular Election (Quinnipiac)
Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1 (49-48)
COMMENT: Previous polling showed incumbent Perdue leading. But this poll by Quinnipiac, which often shows Democrats doing better than other polls, has Democrat Ossoff with a slight edge. Handicappers rate the race either a tossup or tilt/lean Republican.
Among voters nationwide
How big a problem is racism in our society today?
A big problem: 48%
Somewhat of a problem: 29%
A small problem: 17%
Not a problem: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: 71% of Biden’s voters, 17% of Trump’s voters, 42% of independents, 40% of Whites, 76% of Blacks, 61% of Hispanics, 54% of 18-29-year-olds, 59% of 30-44-year-olds, 38% 45-64-year-olds and 45% of voters 65+ say racism is a “big problem.”
CABLE NEWS WATCHING
Among voters nationwide
Which cable news network do you watch the most?
Fox News: 19%
Other cable news network: 7%
I don’t watch any cable news: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 30% of Biden’s voters mostly watch CNN, 17% mostly watch MSNBC and 5% mostly watch Fox News…. 5% of Trump’s voters mostly watch CNN, 2% mostly watch MSNBC and 38% mostly watch Fox News…. 12% of independents mostly watch CNN, 7% mostly watch MSNBC and 16% mostly watch Fox News…. Note that the question asks which network voters watch the most, not whether voters ever watch each network.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 27-30;Reuters, Sept. 25-29; Rasmussen, Sept. 23-29
STATE POLLS: POLLSTERS INDICATED ALONG WITH RESULTS; MOST INTERVIEWING DONE WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, OR OTHERWISE NOTED.
RASICM, CABLE NEWS WATCHING: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 27-30
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron