Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, July 29, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 39%
Up 2 from a week ago
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 37% (Reuters, Politico) to 44% (Rasmussen). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (down 2 from a week ago), putting him at 17 points net negative. Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, July 29, 2022.
PRESIDENT 2024: NEW HAMPSHIRE
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters
- Pete Buttigieg: 17%
- Joe Biden: 16%
- Gavin Newsom: 10%
- Elizabeth Warren: 10%
- Amy Klobuchar: 9%
- Bernie Sanders: 8%
- Kamala Harris: 6%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5%
- Hillary Clinton: 3%
- Stacey Abrams: 3%
- Others: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: This New Hampshire primary poll is a disaster for both Biden and Harris. It’s good for Buttigieg, who tops the field, albeit by one point, and Newsom, who has yet to build strong nationwide awareness…. Yikes: 75% of Democrats in the poll say they’re concerned about Biden’s age…. In 2020, Sanders won the New Hampshire primary with 26%, Buttigieg was a close second (24%) and Klobuchar was third (20%).
Among voters statewide
- Tim Ryan (D) over J.D. Vance (R): +6 (44-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Ryan leads Vance, Trump’s candidate in the GOP primary. The open seat is currently held by a Republican, so a Democratic win would be a blow to the Republican attempt to capture a Senate majority.
- (Fox News) John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +11 (47-36)
- (PEM-R) John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +6 (44-38)
- (Blueprint-D) John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Fetterman holds a clear lead over Oz, Trump’s candidate in the GOP primary. The average of these polls puts the Democrat ahead by 8.7 points…. The open seat is currently held by a Republican, so a Democratic win would be a blow to the Republican attempt to win control of the Senate.
- (Fox News) Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +4 (46-42)
- (AJC) Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +3 (46-43)
- (SurveyUSA) Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +9 (48-39)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of these polls puts Democrat Warnock ahead by 5.3 points.
MISSOURI Republican primary
- Eric Schmitt: 28%
- Eric Greitens: 20%
- Vicky Hartzler 13%
- Others: 15%
RON'S COMMENT: Polls in this GOP primary have been bouncing around for quite some time. Now that the race is in the home stretch, this poll shows AG Schmitt leading with former Gov. Greitens running 8 points behind. Most other recent polls also have been showing Schmitt ahead, but with Hartzler running above Greitens.... Primary is Aug. 2.... On the Democratic side, Trudy Valentine leads the primary.... General election: Schmitt (R) is beating Valentine (D) by 6 points. However, Greitens (R) and Valentine (D) are tied.
ARIZONA Republican primary
Trafalgar (R) /Battleground Connect (R)
- Blake Masters: 35% /28%
- Jim Lamon: 27% /30%
- Mark Brnovich: 15% /16%
- Others: 14% /14%
RON’S COMMENT: Masters and Lamon are battling it out in the GOP primary to pick an opponent against Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly…. Masters, who holds an average lead of 3 points, has Trump’s endorsement…. Primary is Aug. 2.
Among voters statewide
- (Fox News) Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +10 (50-40)
- (Blueprint-D) Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +12 (51-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Shapiro’s lead averages 11 points. The current governor, who is not running, is a Democrat.
- (Fox News) Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +3 (47-44)
- (AJC) Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +5 (48-43)
- (SurveyUSA) Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +1 (45-44)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of these three polls puts Republican Gov. Kemp ahead by 3 points.
MICHIGAN Republican primary
Mitchell (R) /co-efficient (R)
- Tudor Dixon: 28% /21%
- Kevin Rinke: 21% /22%
- Ryan Kelley: 14% / -
- Garrett Soldando: 11% / -
RON’S COMMENT: Dixon’s advantage may be dwindling; the average of these two polls has her ahead by 2.5 points. The Aug. 2 primary winner takes on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), who is the general election favorite.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT: UNH, July 21-25
OHIO: PEM (R), July 22-24
MICHIGAN: co/efficient (R), July 24-26; Mitchell (R), July 24-25
PENNSYLVANIA: Fox News, July 22-26; Blueprint (D), July 19-21; PEM (R), July 22-24
GEORGIA: Fox News, July 22-26; SurveyUSA, July 21-24; Atlanta Journal-Constitution, July 14-22
ARIZONA: Trafalgar (R), July 25-27; Battleground Connect (R), July 26-27
MISSOURI: SurveyUSA, July 24-27
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron