Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, December 4, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from last week
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Politico, Quinnipiac) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 45%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from last week), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
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NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = The Hill/Politico/The Economist = Average
Joe Biden: 31% / 29% / 27% = 29
Bernie Sanders: 15% / 20% / 13% = 16
Elizabeth Warren: 10% / 15% / 18% = 14.3
Pete Buttigieg: 9% / 9% / 12% = 10
Michael Bloomberg: 6% / 5% / 3% = 4.7
Kamala Harris: 2% / 5% / 4% = 3.7
Andrew Yang: 2% / 4% / 2% = 2.7
Tom Steyer: 2% / 2% / - = 1.3
Cory Booker: 1% / 2% / 3% = 2
Amy Klobuchar: 2% / 2% / 3% = 2.3
Tulsi Gabbard: - / 2% / 2% = 1.3
Julian Castro: 2% / 1% / 1% = 1.3
Candidates with 1% or less in every poll not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Based on the average of these three polls, Biden holds his national lead with Sanders second and Warren third:
- The Politico poll shows Biden down 1, Sanders down 1 and Bloomberg up 3 since their last survey.
- The Hill poll has Biden up 1, Sanders down 3, Warren down 5, Buttigieg up 2 and Bloomberg up 3 since their last survey.
- The Economist poll has Biden up 4, Sanders down 2, Warren up 1 since their last survey.
- The Hill poll finds Biden leading whites with 24% and blacks with 48%. Biden and Sanders are battling for first place among Hispanics.
- The Politico poll shows Bloomberg with the highest unfavorable rating among Democrats at 29%. Gabbard is second with 26%. Gabbard and Marianne Williamson are the only candidates with a net negative rating among Democratic voters.
- In the battle of the billionaires, Bloomberg is already beating Steyer, 4.7 to 1.3.
- These polls were taken when Harris was still in the race. She ended up running sixth. Her high point was a Quinnipiac poll in late June showing her with 20%, running second to Biden at 22%.
ILLINOIS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
All other candidates received less than 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a lead in Illinois, with Warren, Buttigieg and Sanders fighting for second place. The primary is March 17 and 155 delegates are at stake.
BRITISH ROYAL FAMILY: U.S. FAVORABILITY
Among U.S. adults
% = Favorable / Unfavorable
Queen Elizabeth: 69% / 12%
Prince William: 63% / 12%
Prince Harry: 63% / 14%
Duchess Catherine (Middleton): 61% / 11%
Duchess Megan (Markle): 58% / 20%
Prince Philip: 47% / 22%
Prince Charles: 42% / 34%
Prince Andrew: 28% / 36%
RON’S COMMENT: Those who watched “The Crown” over the Thanksgiving holiday will find this especially interesting:
- The Queen maintains strong popularity among Americans, and so do her grandsons and their wives. Her husband, Philip, and her son, Charles, however, have net favorable ratings that dip below 50%. Her son Andrew, who has been the subject of scandalous news stories involving Jeffrey Epstein, is the only royal tested in the U.S. who is net negative.
- Charles does modestly better with American men (45%/30%) than with American women (40%/36%). He does best with Americans who are 65 and older (55%/35%).
- Catherine does a good bit better with American women (67%/9%) than with men (55%/14%). Megan also does better with American women (61%/19%) than with men (53%/20%).
- Megan does somewhat better with blacks (63%/13%) than with whites (58%/21%) and much better with Democrats (75%/9%) than with Republicans (52%/30%).
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Hill/HarrisX, Nov. 30-Dec. 1; Politico/Morning Consult, Nov. 25-Dec. 1; The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 1-3
ILLINOIS: Victory Research, Nov. 22-25
BRITISH ROYAL FAMILY: The Economist/YouGov, Nov. 24-26
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