Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, August 12, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Morning Consult) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Notice that the top five candidates are getting a total 89% of the vote in this national poll––and the remaining 20 contenders are getting a total of only 3%. As time goes on, pressure will intensify on most of these candidates to drop out. At this point, they’re drawing so few votes they’re not much of a factor, anyway. More from this poll:
- Biden is getting 37% of men, 30% of women, 32% of whites, 35% of blacks and 35% of Hispanics.
- Sanders is getting 22% of men, 18% of women, 18% of whites, 18% of blacks and 33% of Hispanics.
- Warren is getting 15% of men, 22% of women, 20% of whites, 12% of blacks and 9% of Hispanics.
- When Democrats were asked about their party’s message, 18% say it’s too far left, 8% say it’s too far right and 54% say it’s where it should be.
- When Democrats were asked about the size of government, 25% say they want bigger government, 31% want smaller government and 25% want the same as it is now.
Among voters nationwide
When it comes to border security, which party do you trust most?
Republican Party: 35%
Democratic Party: 31%
Both equally: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Looking at Americans who are most likely to be swing voters––independents say they trust Republicans over Democrats 23-13 on border security. However, 44% of independents say they trust neither party on the issue…. It should also be noted that a good chunk of partisans themselves––21% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans––say they trust neither party on this issue. That 21% number may give some Democratic strategists heartburn.
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable Care Act, also known as "Obamacare"?
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans approve of Obamacare.
DEMOCRATIC INTEREST IN LAST DEBATES
Among Democrats nationwide
[AMONG DEMOCRATS] On Tuesday, July 30, and Wednesday, July 31, 20 of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates participated in the second set of nationally televised debates of the campaign. How interested were you in watching either of the debates?
Very interested: 28%
Somewhat interested: 33%
Not very interested: 21%
Not at all interested: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: 61% of Democrats say they were interested in watching the last round of debates.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: SurveyUSA, Aug. 1-5
BORDER SECURITY, OBAMACARE, DEMOCRATIC INTEREST IN LAST DEBATES: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 3-6
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.