Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, April 6, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Same as Saturday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 45% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Saturday), putting him at 13 points net negative.
Among voters statewide
Ted Budd: 38%
Pat McCrory: 22%
Mark Walker: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat now held by retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr…. McCrory, a former governor, and Budd, an incumbent congressman, are running even in the suburbs, but Trump-endorsed Budd leads in rural areas by a wide margin. The primary is May 12.
Ted Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +7 (50-43)
Cheri Beasley (D) over Pat McCrory: +2 (44-4),
Mark Walker (R) over Cheri Beasley (D): +5 (47-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans Budd and Walker beat Democrat Beasley, but McCrory runs slightly behind. Beasley is chief justice of the state Supreme Court…. Biden is not helping Democrats in North Carolina. He has a job approval of 44%, with 52% disapproving. In 2020, Trump won the state 50-49.
Emerson College Poll / POS poll = Average
David McCormick: 14%/22% = 18
Mehmet Oz: 14%/16% = 15
Kathy Barnette: 6%/13% = 9.5
Carla Sands: 6%/11% = 8.5
Jeff Bartos: 5%/8% = 6.5
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R)…. In the Emerson poll, McCormick is running even with Oz, the celebrity doctor. But in the POS (R) poll, McCormick is in first place. The POS poll was taken for the Honor Pennsylvania PAC, which supports McCormick.
John Fetterman: 33%
Conor Lamb: 10%
Kevin Baumlin: 9%
Malcolm Kenyatta: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Lt. Gov. Fetterman leads the field by a wide margin. U.S. Rep. Lamb runs a weak second as it now stands. Baumlin has since withdrawn from the race.
- On the fracking issue in Pennsylvania, the poll report says: “Republican voters are unified in support of more fracking in the state with 75%, whereas Democratic voters are more split: 44% think there should be less fracking and 36% think there should be more.”
PANDEMIC BORDER CONTROLS
Among voters nationwide
As you may know, the Trump administration implemented border controls at the U.S.-Mexico border in March 2020 in order to slow the spread of COVID-19. These controls allowed border officials to quickly expel migrants seeking to enter the U.S. for protection. The Biden administration will remove these border controls on May 23rd. Do you support or oppose the Biden administration removing these border controls?
- Support removing pandemic border controls: 34%
- Oppose removing pandemic border controls: 55%
RON’S COMMENT: By a wide margin, voters oppose removing pandemic border controls. Looks like Democrats may be walking into another political buzz saw on this issue. The border is already a big political problem for Biden and Democrats. Based on this poll from Politico/Morning Consult, this political problem could get worse.... By party: 27% of Democrats, 88% of Republicans and 52% of independents oppose the Biden administration removing border controls.
Among voters nationwide
As you may know, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson has been nominated to the Supreme Court. When the Senate votes on Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson’s nomination to the Supreme Court, do you think the Senate should vote to confirm her as a Supreme Court justice, or not?
- Vote to confirm: 49%
- Vote NOT to confirm: 26%
RON’S COMMENT: Based on this poll, Jackson got through her confirmation hearings unscathed. 78% of Democrats, 24% of Republicans and 43% of independents support confirmation.... Whites support confirmation 46-30 and Blacks support it 65-10.... Men support it 50-30 and women support it 49-22.
PARTIES IN CONGRESS: ISSUE HANDLING
Among voters nationwide
Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?
% = Democrats / Republicans
- Inflation: 32%/46% (R+14)
- National security: 35%/48% (R+13)
- The economy: 36%/47% (R+9)
- Gun policy: 38%/45% (R+7)
- Immigration: 38%/45% (R+7)
- Energy: 40%/40% (even)
- Healthcare: 45%/38% (D+7)
- Education: 44%/37% (D+7)
- Coronavirus: 42%/34% (D+8)
- Protecting Social Security/Medicare: 44%/36% (D+8)
- The environment: 47%/31% (D+18)
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans have improved their position on most issues and now post wide leads on national security, inflation and the economy. Republicans have also taken the immigration issue away from Democrats. Democrats do best on the environment, Social Security and Medicare, coronavirus, education and healthcare. They’re even on energy.
FRANCE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2022
Among voters in France
Based on average of last four polls
Presidential first round:
Emmanuel Macron: 27%
Marine LePen: 22%
Jean-Luc Antoine Pierre Mélenchon: 16%
Eric Zemmour: 10%
Valerie Pecresse: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Since our polling average last week, Macron has slipped a point and both LePen (on the right) and Mélenchon (on the left) have each moved up a point…. The first round of voting is this Sunday…. Second round voting is April 24…. In runoff polling averages, Macron now leads LePen 53-47, which has narrowed a bit since last week. Macron leads Mélenchon by a wider 59-41 margin, which has also tightened slightly since last week.
APRIL 1945: THE HINGE OF HISTORY
By Craig Shirley
Acclaimed historian and New York Times bestselling author Craig Shirley delivers a compelling account of 1945, particularly the watershed events in the month of April, that details how America emerged from World War II as a leading superpower.
One of the most consequential months in history, April of 1945 saw: the tragic death of President Roosevelt and the final, vicious demise of Adolf Hitler…. the fall of the Empire of Japan and the rise of atomic weaponry…. the horrific revelations of the Holocaust, an American society reshaped by global war and industrialization, the collapse of Naziism and the disturbing rise of the Soviet Union as a new adversary.
To purchase, go to April 1945: The Hinge of History
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NORTH CAROLINA: Emerson College/The Hill, April 2-4
PENNSYLVANIA: Emerson College/The Hill, March 26-28; POS (R), March 29-April 3
PARTIES IN CONGRESS: ISSUE HANDLING: Politico/Morning Consult, March 25-27
PANDEMIC BORDER CONTROLS, JACKSON CONFIRMATION: Politico/Morning Consult, April 1-4
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron