Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, December 9, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 2 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Monmouth) to 45% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (up 1 from yesterday), putting him at 9 points net negative.
Among voters in each state
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +15 (52-37)
RON’S COMMENT: Now that Matthew McConaughey has decided not to run, we can focus on a two-way race between Republican incumbent Abbott and Democrat O’Rourke. This poll puts Abbott way out in front.... Republicans favor Abbott 90-5, independents support Abbott 47-37 and Democrats back O'Rourke 87-6.... Democrats have an ideology problem in this conservative leaning state:
- 54% of voters say O'Rourke is too liberal, 35% say he’s about right.
- 41% of voters say Abbott is too conservative, 49% say he’s about right.
Dean Heller (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +7 (47-40)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll from the Trafalgar Group (R) shows former U.S. Sen. Heller (R) leading the state’s incumbent Democratic governor. Sisolak was elected governor in 2018. Heller served in the Senate for 8 years; he was defeated by Democrat Jacky Rosen 50-45 in 2018.
"BUILD BACK BETTER" SPENDING BILL
Among voters nationwide
Support for the bill:
(Politico/Morning Consult poll) As you may know, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion Build Back Better climate and social spending package. Do you support or oppose this climate and social spending package?
Don’t know: 12%
(NPR/Marist poll) Recently, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Build Back Better Bill and it is now being debated in the U.S. Senate. In general, do you support or oppose this bill?
RON’S COMMENT: Two polls show national support for the bill is 7 points higher than the opposition––though support falls below 50% in both.... Wonder what it is in West Virginia?.... In the Politico/Morning Consult poll: 16% of Republicans, 81% of Democrats, 40% of independents, 45% of women, 50% of men, 44% of Whites, 63% of Blacks and 52% of Hispanics support the Democratic bill…. The Marist poll finds that only 41% of voters are optimistic that the bill would help people like them, while 46% are pessimistic…. Keep in mind when looking at polls on this legislation that its contents are likely to change yet again, which could alter voter views.
Support for individual parts of the bill:
Support for possible parts of the bill is greater than support for the entire bill, according to the Politico/Morning Consult poll:
- 76% support funding for home health care for seniors and people with disabilities
- 75% support expanding Medicare coverage to cover hearing services
- 71% support allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices
- 65% support funding for affordable housing
- 63% support offering subsidized health insurance to low-income people in states that have not expanded Medicaid
- 63% support paid family and medical leave for new parents
- 61% support incentivizing clean energy technology innovations
- 59% support incentivizing the installation of solar panels in homes
- 59% support funding for child care and universal pre-kindergarten
- 57% support extending existing tax credits for electricity produced from renewable sources
- 57% support investing in fortifying resilience to extreme weather events
- 56% support limiting child care costs for some families to no more than 7% of income
- 53% support extending the expanded affordable care act premium tax credits
- 53% support extending the child tax credit for one year
- 49% support extending the expanded earned income tax credit for childless workers for one year
- 47% support incentivizing the buying of electric vehicles through tax credits
RON’S COMMENT: As you can see, the three most popular parts of the bill are related to health care and seniors: (1) home health care for seniors and people with disabilities, (2) expanding Medicare coverage to cover hearing services and (3) allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices––each of these three measures receives more than 70% support.
PRESIDENT: FRANCE 2022
Among voters in France nationwide
Average of last three polls for the first-round election:
- Pres. Emmanuel Macron (Citizens Together): 24.3%
- Valérie Pécresse (Republican): 17.7%
- Marine Le Pen (National Rally): 16%
- Éric Zemmour (Reconquest Party): 13.7%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon (France in Revolt): 8.3%
- Yannick Jadot (Greens/Europe Ecology): 6.7%
RON’S COMMENT: French President Macron is up for re-election next year. The first round is April 10 and the runoff is April 24…. Runoff polls show Macron beating Le Pen, Pécresse or Zemmour in two-way contests––although the new Elabe poll has Pécresse edging Macron by 4 points.
- Macron, the incumbent president elected in 2017, leads a centrist/liberal coalition. The party he founded in 2017, En Marche, leads this group. It has 270 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly.
- Pécresse describes herself as “two-thirds Merkel, one-third Thatcher.” She has been President of the Regional Council of Île-de-France since 2015. Her Republican center-right party, formerly called the Union for a Popular Movement, was founded by Jacques Chirac in 2002 and renamed by former president Nicholas Sarkozy in 2015. It has 105 seats in the National Assembly.
- Le Pen is a member of the National Assembly and daughter of former party leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. She finished second in the first round of the 2017 election for president with 21.3% of the vote; she lost the runoff to Macron in a landslide, 66-34.
- Zemmour is a far-right TV pundit, writer and reformer. His views are described as “hard line” on immigration and France’s national identity. He sees himself as Gaullist/Bonapartist.
- Mélenchon is a far-left populist who ran for president in 2012 and 2017, representing the Left Front. In 2017, he ran fourth with nearly 20%. He wants a constitutional convention and creation of a Sixth Republic.
- Jadot is a left-wing environmentalist and member of the European Parliament.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS: Quinnipiac, Dec. 2-6
NEVADA: Trafalgar (R), Nov. 24-29
BUILD BACK BETTER SPENDING BILL: Politico/Morning Consult, Dec. 4-6; NPR/Marist, Nov. 30-Dec. 6
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron