Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 22, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (46-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +9 (49-40)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +11 (49-38)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +12 (49-37)
RON’S COMMENT: Polls like this underscore the perception that Biden is the candidate most likely to beat Trump in the general election. He’s tying Trump in a state that Trump carried by nearly 4 points in 2016, while other Democrats are losing by clear margins…. Trump’s Arizona job approval in this poll is 52%, which is much better than his national rating.
Among voters statewide
Sen. Martha McSally (R) over Mark Kelly (D): +2 (46-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Republican McSally lost a Senate bid last year by 2 points, but was subsequently appointed to fill the state’s other Senate seat, John McCain’s vacancy, which is up in 2020. This poll shows her with a thin lead over astronaut Democrat Kelly, husband of former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords (D)…. Independents: In the survey, Kelly wins women independents by 9 points and loses male independents by 9 points. Kelly wins Maricopa 49-41 and Pima 48-46. McSally wins rural counties 56-31…. McSally vs.Gallego: This poll also shows McSally leading U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) by a wider 49-41 margin…. See Kelly’s campaign video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfY-7meWW1Y
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Howard Schultz: 14%/37%
Cory Booker: 33%/37%
Pete Buttigieg: 14%/14%
Julian Castro: 23%/28%
Tulsi Gabbard: 16%/28%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 27%/33%
Kamala Harris: 37%/37%
Amy Klobuchar: 26%/28%
Bernie Sanders: 42%/49%
Elizabeth Warren: 39%/46%
RON’S COMMENT: Every announced presidential candidate on this list, except Buttigieg, has a net negative rating among all voters nationwide. And, Buttigieg, the least known, is even…. Independent contender Schultz has had an especially inauspicious beginning to his campaign. Among independents––voters he should appeal to––he’s more than two to one negative, 13%/28%.... Among only Democrats: Sanders is 71%/19%, Warren 64%/17%, Harris 61%/10%, Klobuchar 42%/10% and Booker 57%/10%.
Among adults nationwide
Which movie do you want to win the Academy Award for Best Picture?
Bohemian Rhapsody: 25%
Black Panther: 23%
A Star is Born: 22%
Green Book: 8%
The Favourite: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: There is a three-way race for the Oscar favorite: Bohemian Rhapsody does best with 45-64 year-olds (32%), whites (31%) and Republicans (29%)…. Black Panther does best with 18-29 year-olds (31%), Democrats (36%) and blacks (53%)…. A Star is Born does best with Republicans (33%) and people over 65 years old (28%).
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, Feb. 12-13
ACADEMY AWARDS, CANDIDATE POPULARITY: The Economist/YouGov, Feb. 17-19
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When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.