Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, December 13, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 43%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating
ELITE AUDIENCE POLLING BY CERTUS INSIGHTS
Elite audience surveys can provide valuable insights for any organization. They establish critical benchmarks and guide effective messaging, issue assessments, tactical targeting and advocacy activation. See how Certus Insights approaches this specialized research and what it can do for your association, nonprofit or business: http://bit.ly/2KkjDke
Among voters in each states
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +1 (45-44)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +1 (44-43)
Donald Trump over Cory Booker: +1 (44-43)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin was a crucial state for Trump in 2016, he won it by a thin margin. This poll shows it’s still close with Trump edging four candidates and losing only to Biden by a slight margin. Democrats carried Wisconsin in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections.
Donald Trump over Joe Biden: +1 (48-47)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +7 (51-44)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +7 (50-43)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +7 (50-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump is beating three Democrats by 7 points in Texas, but posts only a 1-point lead over Biden. Polls like this give Biden the sheen of electability….In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9 points…. Republicans have carried Texas in 10 of the last 10 presidential elections….Lone Star Trivia: Two of the 38 presidential electors Trump won from Texas in 2016 didn’t vote for him in the Electoral College, they instead voted for Ron Paul and John Kasich.
SOUTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 27%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 9%
Cory Booker: 5%
Tom Steyer: 5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 4%
Michael Bloomberg: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Uh oh. The three previous South Carolina surveys showed Biden with an average 22-point lead over the second-place finisher. This one has his lead down to 7 points in this critical firewall state. Is this a real shift or just a polling outlier? As always, we have to wait and see…. The poll has Sanders rising 7 points since October and Warren holding steady…. Biden continues to do best with the state’s large African American constituency, capturing 37% percent.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 47% (-1 since last week)
Trump: 41% (-1 since last week)
It depends: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 6 points, same as last week.
NEW CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY
Among Democrats nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Michael Bloomberg: 35% / 37%
Deval Patrick: 26% / 14%
RON’S COMMENT: After he’s spent $100 million on ads targeting Democrats, Bloomberg still rates slightly net negative. Last week, he rated 36% favorable/37% unfavorable. Since then, his favorability rating slipped a point and his unfavorable number didn’t budge…. During the same time, Patrick improved his position, moving his favorable rating up 2 points and lowering his unfavorable rating 3 points. And, he did it without spending $100 million on ads…. In fairness, Bloomberg’s ad spending still needs time to sink in.
NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.