Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, March 28, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Our averages still do not show any major movement since release of the Mueller report’s summary. Today’s average is based on more interviews conducted after the release than before…. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Quinnipiac) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%.... President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Beto O’Rourke: 12%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Elizabeth Warren: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: *%
Tulsi Gabbard: *%
Jay Inslee: *%
John Delaney: *%
Andrew Yang: *%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is somewhat different from other surveys. It has Sanders in the teens and O’Rourke knocking out Harris for a clear third place. It also shows Buttigieg moving out of the 1% Club into second tier contention with 4%, which ties Warren and is higher than Klobuchar or Booker…. The most liberal Democrats pick Sanders first (21%), Harris second (15%), Biden third (14%), Warren fourth (10%) and O’Rourke fifth (9%)…. Biden leads Democratic men (32%) with Sanders second (22%) and O’Rourke third (13%). Biden also leads Democratic women (28%), with Sanders second (17%) and O’Rourke and Harris tied for third (11%)…. Biden wins blacks (44%) with Sanders second (17%), O’Rourke third (16%) and Harris fourth (8%)…. Sanders wins Democrats under 50 (26%), Biden is second (22%) and O’Rourke third (15%)…. Footnote: Gillibrand, who has heavily pitched her campaign to being a woman and a mother, does not even poll 1% of Democratic women in this survey.
[ASKED DEMOCRATS ONLY] Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that is - younger or older?
Doesn’t matter: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: More Democrats say they want a younger candidate than those who say it doesn’t matter…. The most liberal Democrats are more inclined to say younger (46%) than everybody else. Men, more than women, say younger (44% vs. 36%). Democrats under 50, more than those over 50, say younger (44% vs. 35%).
[ASKED DEMOCRATS ONLY] Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that is – a man or a woman?
Doesn’t matter: 59%
RON’S COMMENT: 17% of Democratic men and 32% of women prefer a woman candidate.
[ASKED DEMOCRATS ONLY] Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that is – white or a person of color?
Person of color: 20%
Doesn’t matter: 69%
RON’S COMMENT: 34% of the most liberal Democrats, 31% of Democrats under 50, 15% of white Democrats and 26% of black Democrats say they’d prefer a person of color as the candidate.
[ASKED DEMOCRATS ONLY] Thinking about the 2020 Democratic primary for president, if all other things are equal, would you prefer a candidate that is – a progressive or a moderate?
Doesn’t matter: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: 83% of the most liberal Democrats want a progressive, as does 51% of women, 51% of blacks and 64% of Democrats under 50.
Among voters nationwide
For future presidential elections, would you support or oppose changing to a system in which the president is elected by direct popular vote, instead of by the Electoral College?
Favor direct popular vote: 54%
Favor electoral College: 39%
RON’S COMMENT: 25% of Republicans, 82% of Democrats and 51% of independents prefer electing presidents by direct popular vote. The partisan split makes sense given that the last two presidents who lost the popular vote and won the presidency by carrying the Electoral vote were Republicans, George W. Bush and Donald Trump…. Interestingly, support for the direct popular vote has declined since 2012 when it was 60%.
Among voters nationwide
Is your opinion of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Haven’t heard enough about her: 38%
RON’S COMMENT: 2% of Republicans, 47% of Democrats and 20% of independents have favorable views of Ocasio-Cortez. And, 74% of Republicans, 7% of Democrats and 36% of independents have unfavorable views of her. Also: 57% of Democrats say the freshman Member of Congress from New York has been good for their party, while 9% say she’s been bad for the party.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, ELECTORAL COLLEGE, AOC: Quinnipiac Univ., March 21-25